Suggestion: Chilling Mist Taunt: Luxury Lounge at 4.55–5 keys

Hard to know, the 4 keys match in seller's compare via near IDs but in the buyer's compare a key and around a key of ref match. In any case it sold in a day

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198848664435#!/compare/1769731200/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1769731200/1769817600

Bulk for 11 keys

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/16506615448

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095309191#!/compare/1768089600/1768521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1768089600/1768176000

Dumped to Quicksell.Store, the Strange Slumber Slacks match

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1768780800/1768867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035609800#!/compare/1768867200/1768953600

4 keys 30 ref (taking keys as a median point of 54.33 ref, 30/54.33=0.55 keys => 4.55 keys

Sale 8:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035609800#!/compare/1769385600/1769558400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199001894339#!/compare/1769472000/1769558400

Untrace

Sale 9:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199001894339#!/compare/1769558400/1769644800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1769558400/1769644800

Bot dump, untrace

Sale 10:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1774656000/1774742400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198319103731#!/compare/1774656000/1774742400

5 keys

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/16584153953

Sale 11:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079754730#!/compare/1770681600/1770768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198012801965#!/compare/1771027200/1771891200

Untrace

Item 6: https://backpack.tf/item/6712525998

Sale 12:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1768089600/1768176000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239865868#!/compare/1767744000/1768608000

Untrace

Item 7: https://backpack.tf/item/6974631181

Sale 13:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018664802#!/compare/1767052800/1768867200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199206009808#!/compare/1768780800/1768953600

Dumped to a bot, was most likely 3 keys but the keys Don't match. Bot owner then listed on Mannco.Store or someone bought it and instantly listed it there, no way of knowing

Item 8: https://backpack.tf/item/11268435179

Sale 14:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970262340#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1769817600/1769904000

Dumped to STN, 1 scrap matches

Sale 15:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1770681600/1770768000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299129796#!/compare/1770681600/1770768000

3 keys on one side, 18 keys 18 ref on the other

Item 9: https://backpack.tf/item/12390631320

Sale 16:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198203974687#!/compare/1767225600/1772841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1767225600/1767312000

Dumped to STN as bulk for the Blooming Beacon Scorcher's Solo

Sale 17:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055000892#!/compare/1768608000/1768694400

3 keys

Sales:

3, (3?), (4?), 4.55, 5, 6

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/w4mXveS none, buyers up to 3 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30922;5;u3222 $19.99 (~10 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Chilling+Mist+Taunt%3A+Luxury+Lounge none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Luxury%20Lounge?filter=Chilling+Mist+ https://imgur.com/200qzL8 none

3 seems low given it's aroudn what buyers are at. 4 would have probably been an acceptable low-end but there's no real evidence that the sale is actually correct. Excluding 6 since the person who bought at that price re-dumped it for less.

Going with 4.55-5 keys