Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/16730432983

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072667073#!/compare/1774569600/1774656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198110561623#!/compare/1774656000/1775001600

45 keys

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/14462273080

Sale 2:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/139;5;u61

Sold for $95 on Jan 31 2026

Keys were $1.85 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

95/1.85=51.35 ~51 keys

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/2206357632

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135679943#!/compare/1768435200/1768521600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1768435200/1768521600

39 keys, possibly a buy order dump but no way of knowing

Sales:

39, 45, 51

Sellers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/XqmzRlq 44.5 keys (2 days), 47 keys (27 days)

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/139;5;u61 $95 (~48 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Miami+Nights+Modest+Pile+of+Hat none

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Modest%20Pile%20of%20Hat?filter=Miami+Nights https://imgur.com/RAKN5EP none

There's currently a STN buy order at ~39 keys and a single 39 key buyer on BPTF. It may indicate that 39 is low however there's no real evidence that it was a quicksell, plus there's a seller slightly lower than 45, so 45 keys flat might not be the best solution. 51 is obviously an outlier given that there are some available for less and one has been there for nearly a month.

Going with 39-45 keys