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Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/14743359676
Sale 1:
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199203680409#!/compare/1773532800/1773619200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198125138149#!/compare/1773532800/1773619200
2 keys 48 ref (2.8, ~2.9 keys)
Sales:
2.9
Sellers:
BPTF - https://imgur.com/WT8jj8b 2.88 keys
MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31349;5;u3193 $5.65 (~2.84 keys)
STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Tangled+Lights+Taunt%3A+The+Head+Doctor none
SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Head%20Doctor?filter=+Tangled+Lights https://imgur.com/dmjm6ZU none
MPTF seller is so close to the sale that I think 2.9 keys should be fine