Suggestion: Flaming Lantern Modest Pile of Hat at 230 keys

Price Suggestion

~200 keys

lantern

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Comments

Comparison Links:

Seller: [https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1777939200/1778112000]
Buyer: [https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000]

Trade Breakdown: Sold [Flaming Lantern Modest Pile of Hat] for:

Sunbeams Law (~170 keys) - Based on recent transaction history and the MP.TF sales.
Strange Killstreak Festive Flame Thrower (~17 keys) - Valued at highest Buy Order
Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Stickybomb Launcher (~43 keys) - Valued at highest Buy Order

Total Value: 170 + 17 + 43 = 230 keys

Proof & Context:

Base Transaction (Recent Trade): A recent trade was valued at 171 keys, which serves as the primary baseline for this calculation. (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600)

Breakdown: Strange Professional Killstreak Shooting Star (61k) + Scorching Flames Neckwear Headwear (105k) + Taunt: Kazotsky Kick(~4k) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Degreaser(~1key) .
Supporting Proof: Sale history confirming the 105k valuation of the Neckwear Headwear. (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1776729600/1776816000)
Comparison (MP.tf Sale): This valuation is further supported by an MP.tf sale on Jan 25, 2026. The item sold for $319.99 USD, which equates to ~168 keys (based on the $1.91 key price that day). (https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30362;5;u17)
Recent Pure Sale (153k - Min): (https://next.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159045634/compare?from=1774051200&to=1774137600)
Festive Flame Thrower: Based on the current highest buy order at approximately 17 keys.
Strange Pro KS Festive Sticky: Reference taken from current Pro KS version buy order at around 43 keys.
Suggested Range: Taking 230 Keys (Considering slight premiums or fluctuations common in item-to-item trades).

Classifieds

https://ibb.co/VYf9LPJs - Sunbeams Law
https://ibb.co/4R10p89K - Strange Killstreak Festive Flame Thrower
https://ibb.co/39CYhQvL - Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Stickybomb Launcher

Sunbeams Law is outdated and needs a mini.

Updated with a mini for Sunbeams Law: Current buyers at 148k / sellers at 185k. 170k is a conservative mid-point. This should address the outdated pricing concern.

You need sales, not just estimates.

Updated with actual sales: 153k pure.

Why cherry-picking 170 then?

The 153k sale is a clear quicksell outlier, especially considering it’s only 5 keys above the highest buyer (148k). While there have been other sales in the 168k-190k range, they are difficult to prove (due to inventory changes on the same day or trades happening too fast to be captured by a snapshot). Relying solely on a single outlier while ignoring the current buyer/seller spread would lead to an inaccurate price. Therefore, I believe 170k is a reasonable and realistic estimate for this hat.