Suggestion: Flaming Lantern Modest Pile of Hat at 230 keys

Price Suggestion

~230 keys

lantern

27 votes up

15 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Wed, 17 Jun 26 02:10:12 +0000 by Shuffle Spy.

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Comments

Comparison Links:

Seller: [https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198140316312#!/compare/1777939200/1778112000]
Buyer: [https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000]

Trade Breakdown: Sold [Flaming Lantern Modest Pile of Hat] for:

Sunbeams Law (~170 keys) - Based on recent transaction history and the MP.TF sales.
Strange Killstreak Festive Flame Thrower (~17 keys) - Valued at highest Buy Order
Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Stickybomb Launcher (~43 keys) - Valued at highest Buy Order

Total Value: 170 + 17 + 43 = 230 keys

Proof & Context:

Base Transaction (Recent Trade): A recent trade was valued at 171 keys, which serves as the primary baseline for this calculation. (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600)

Breakdown: Strange Professional Killstreak Shooting Star (61k) + Scorching Flames Neckwear Headwear (105k) + Taunt: Kazotsky Kick(~4k) + Strange Specialized Killstreak Degreaser(~1key) .
Supporting Proof: Sale history confirming the 105k valuation of the Neckwear Headwear. (https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061562171#!/compare/1776729600/1776816000)
Comparison (MP.tf Sale): This valuation is further supported by an MP.tf sale on Jan 25, 2026. The item sold for $319.99 USD, which equates to ~168 keys (based on the $1.91 key price that day). (https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30362;5;u17)
Recent Pure Sale (153k - Min): (https://next.backpack.tf/profiles/76561198159045634/compare?from=1774051200&to=1774137600)
Festive Flame Thrower: Based on the current highest buy order at approximately 17 keys.
Strange Pro KS Festive Sticky: Reference taken from current Pro KS version buy order at around 43 keys.
Suggested Range: Taking 230 Keys (Considering slight premiums or fluctuations common in item-to-item trades).

Classifieds

https://ibb.co/VYf9LPJs - Sunbeams Law
https://ibb.co/4R10p89K - Strange Killstreak Festive Flame Thrower
https://ibb.co/39CYhQvL - Strange Professional Killstreak Festive Stickybomb Launcher

As mentioned, you need concrete evidence for the Law's price, not your own estimate. If you have a sale at 153 Keys, that's a valid trade point. Buy orders being close to but below that doesn't invalidate it. Taking buy order price alone for the weapons will undervalue them considering there are definitely sales for each. If you need help fully fleshing out the minis for all 3 items, feel free to ask, but the evidence here is insufficient.

Also, did you sell this or list it somewhere?

I must respectfully disagree with the assessment that the evidence is insufficient, as the current logic stands on very firm ground.

To provide some context, I haven't played TF2 or followed the trading scene for quite a long time recently. That is why I standardly listed these items on the Steam Community Market, where they have not been sold yet, and why I chose a more straightforward valuation approach.

Regarding the Law (~170k), its value is heavily supported by the ~$319.99 MP.tf sale and the 171k mixed trade. While the 153k pure sale exists, it shouldn't completely invalidate the value generated in item-to-item transactions.

For the Festive weapons, using the highest buy orders (17k + 43k = 60k) was a deliberate, conservative choice to avoid inflating the price based on my current knowledge. If we look at actual historical sales, their value would be even higher, which pushes the total trade value beyond 230 keys, not lower.

However, if you insist on fully fleshing out the exact minis for all 3 items to validate the 230k range, I would appreciate your help with that data as you offered. Since I’ve been out of the loop, what specific historical sales for the weapons should we look at to bridge this gap?

The $319.99 Marketplace sale was over 3 months prior to this suggestion's creation, so that'll be too old to use. The Neckwear in the 171 sale may end up a few Keys lower given the comments on its open price suggestion, but that'll end up in the proposed price range for the Law as detailed below.

The Law sold for 185 Keys this month

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032176942#!/compare/1780617600/1780704000

There are some recent sales for the Flame Thrower at 17-19 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Flame%20Thrower&at=2026-06-17T02:04:39.362Z

There are some non-outlier sales for the Stickybomb at 44-47 Keys

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Festive%20Stickybomb%20Launcher&at=2026-06-17T02:04:39.362Z

There's a Law buyer at 154 now, but it's fresh + the untraceable STN sales in March were likely closer to that than 185, so 153-185 would work for the Law's price. 169 + 45.5 + 18 = 232.5 which is close enough to the suggested price of 230. Had the 185 sale not occurred for the Law, the sale's price would've ended up lower, hence why fleshing out the minis is important to keep in mind for future suggestions.

Sunbeams Law is outdated and needs a mini.

Updated with a mini for Sunbeams Law: Current buyers at 148k / sellers at 185k. 170k is a conservative mid-point. This should address the outdated pricing concern.

You need sales, not just estimates.

Updated with actual sales: 153k pure.

Why cherry-picking 170 then?

The 153k sale is a clear quicksell outlier, especially considering it’s only 5 keys above the highest buyer (148k). While there have been other sales in the 168k-190k range, they are difficult to prove (due to inventory changes on the same day or trades happening too fast to be captured by a snapshot). Relying solely on a single outlier while ignoring the current buyer/seller spread would lead to an inaccurate price. Therefore, I believe 170k is a reasonable and realistic estimate for this hat.