Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400 - Near ID: 17007121502

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199378898647#!/compare/1778198400/1778284800

https://backpack.tf/item/13273025362

= 3 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 2 keys + 32 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199103740298#!/compare/1775001600/1775088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061147031#!/compare/1774742400/1775088000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Wildflower%20Meadows%20Taunt:%20Bare%20Knuckle%20Beatdown&at=2026-05-30T10:11:42.201Z - Confirmed

https://backpack.tf/item/12433963705

= 2.6 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 2 keys + at least 25.88 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1774569600/1774656000 - Near ID: 16860601887

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119317418#!/compare/1756252800/1774742400

https://backpack.tf/item/13273025362

Only the keys show up on the compare, I was pretty committed to getting this priced, I went ahead and checked similar IDs to the taunt to find the other items involved, and found 29 total items involved, as seen below. Some of these items show up as blank and I don’t know if there’s a way to find out what they were before they disappeared, but given the nature of this trade, it almost certainly was all metal (the list of histories below doesn’t include the 2 keys that already show up in the compare link).

This means it could at the most be all refined metal, or 25 refined metal, 2 reclaimed, 2 scrap (totalling to 29 items), as STN optimizes trades to the fewest items, and doesn’t exceed 2 reclaimed/scrap metal when the more optimal solution is present.

Therefore (taking keys as 54.33 ref, which they were at the time), this trade will end up ranging from 2.5 keys to 2.55 keys.

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601890

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601892

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601924

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601954

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601956

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601960

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601962

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601966

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601967

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601968

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601969

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601970

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601971

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601972

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601973

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601974

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601976

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601980

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601982

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601983

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601985

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601987

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601988

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601990

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601991

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601994

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601996

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601997

https://backpack.tf/item/16860601999

= ~2.5 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31207;5;u3123

https://backpack.tf/item/10838408384

$5.99, April 5th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were $1.97

5.99/1.97 = 3.041, rounds to 3.05 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198964717165#!/compare/1773446400/1773532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043858325#!/compare/1773360000/1773619200

https://backpack.tf/item/12437885661

Backpack buy

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198119317418#!/compare/1775865600/1780012800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199697394581#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400

https://backpack.tf/item/13273025362

Mass bulk to qsstore

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199378898647#!/compare/1778198400/1778284800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1778198400/1778284800

https://backpack.tf/item/13273025362

Untraceable, dumped to qsstore. Follows the 3 key sale.

https://backpack.tf/item/12518452543 - mannco

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/5Q3XcKy.png

https://backpack.tf/item/13273025362 - ~2.5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13269875268 - ~2.55 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/13270469933 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10952086641 - 3 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31207;5;u3123

https://backpack.tf/item/12538882291 - $5.99

https://backpack.tf/item/12437885661 - $5.99

https://backpack.tf/item/11023733775 - $5.99

Sales at:

~2.5

2.6

3

3.05 (marketplace)

The sale at 3 is invalid due to it re-selling immediately back to qsstore (#3). This leaves us with only 1 valid sale significantly higher than the cheapest sellers, with one of which being listed for 6 months. Going to exclude 3.05 for now, though that may change if we get more marketplace sales.

With Sale 3 being as awkward as is, it should be fine to use 2.5 as our low-end, despite the possibility of that sale being slightly higher. At worst, the seller at ~2.5 can be our low-end.

Taking 2.5-2.6 keys.