Sale 1:

Sold for a Double-spelled Rainblower (Mini at 17 below)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865034538#!/compare/1774915200/1775001600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088227389#!/compare/1774828800/1774915200

https://backpack.tf/item/11177131623

= 17 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1778716800/1778803200 - Near ID: 17034170845

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1778630400/1778803200

https://backpack.tf/item/12177706078

= 14 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 12 keys + 5 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034287318#!/compare/1773360000/1773446400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865034538#!/compare/1773360000/1773446400

https://backpack.tf/item/11177131623

= 12 keys

Sale 4:

Sold to a bot for 12 keys + 2 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088227389#!/compare/1775001600/1775088000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199192607141#!/compare/1775001600/1775088000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Marigold%20Ritual%20Taunt:%20Rancho%20Relaxo&at=2026-06-06T05:11:37.978Z - labelled as 12 keys + 2.66 ref…close enough!

https://backpack.tf/item/11177131623

= 12 keys

Double-spelled Rainblower:

Same rainblower re-sold for 17 keys + negligible metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198865034538#!/compare/1775347200/1775433600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199087135121#!/compare/1775433600/1775520000

https://backpack.tf/item/1038397177

Taking 17.

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1115;5;u3088

https://backpack.tf/item/6164115852

https://backpack.tf/item/12183340987

$39.99, April 2nd (2x)

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were $1.97, April 2nd

39.99/1.97 = 20.299, rounds to 20 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199051773194#!/compare/1775520000/1778457600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199183171982#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600

https://backpack.tf/item/12249064487

Bulk/backpack buy

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198758662906#!/compare/1778630400/1779753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1778716800/1778803200

https://backpack.tf/item/12177706078

Untraceable/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/item/12288505405 - mannco/marketplace

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/HPQMx3t.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2793454243 - ~18.9 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/11158320011 - 19 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3166467849 - ~24.8 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1115;5;u3088

https://backpack.tf/item/12177706078 - $49.99

https://backpack.tf/item/12249064487 - $49.99

Sales at:

12 (2x)

14

17

20 (2x, marketplace)

I feel with these data points, I could go with either 14-17, or 12-20, and either would be acceptable. With the large range of sales here, I feel it’s more sensible to do the larger range here. This encompasses the bot dumps and the sales slightly higher than sellers.

Taking 12-20 keys.