Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys + 41.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400 - Near ID: 17009299078

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147639772#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400

https://backpack.tf/item/10815774144

= 3.75 keys

Sale 2:

Sold to a bot for 2 keys + 15 ref?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199088227389#!/compare/1775260800/1775347200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099031605#!/compare/1775260800/1775347200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Nether%20Wisps%20Taunt:%20Fresh%20Brewed%20Victory&at=2026-06-08T08:21:15.859Z - labelled as 2 keys + 16 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/2769152812

Only 2 keys + 15 ref match…close enough!

= 2.3 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198256755781#!/compare/1774310400/1778976000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1774224000/1774310400

https://backpack.tf/item/2922136913

Untraceable, a lot of metal matches

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1774310400/1774396800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199099521803#!/compare/1774224000/1774396800

https://backpack.tf/item/2922136913

3 keys match, but I’m certain that at least some amount of metal was involved.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085308746#!/compare/1777680000/1777766400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1777680000/1777766400

https://backpack.tf/item/10815774144

Untraceable/Bulk

https://backpack.tf/item/9339731294 - mannco/marketplace

https://backpack.tf/item/9347186253 - marketplace

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/RE8XZUA.png

https://backpack.tf/item/2769152812 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/2922136913 - 5 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/3481156071 - 15 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/1113;5;u3069

https://backpack.tf/item/9347186253 - $9.95

https://backpack.tf/item/9260791314 - $9.95

https://backpack.tf/item/2717382862 - $9.95

https://backpack.tf/item/2986954969 - $9.95

Sales at:

2.3

3.75

There have been a handful of bot dumps here, but it’s uncertain how much any of them had sold for. While the amount of dumps here would call for a range with a reasonable low-end, the only traceable bot dump I have is at ~2.3, and with buyers at ~2.3 and ~3, I don’t think it’s gonna suit our low-end here. Excluding 2.3.

Taking 3.75 keys.