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"if you refuse to accept b/o drops being a valid suggestion, then single sale mp suggestions should not be valid"
https://backpack.tf/item/4438829126
https://ibb.co/zkHB6fw
https://ibb.co/W4PCCjD0
15 keys listed about 5 months ago
https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20The%20Box%20Trot?appid=440&q=Winter%2520Spirit
STN is currently unsold at 12 Keys
https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Winter+Spirit+Taunt%3A+The+Box+Trot
This will be too high. I'd recommend waiting for STN to sell, as their prices will keep lowering until it eventually does sell.
Alternatively, you could try contacting the seller for screenshot proof of the sale, as I think the buyer dump could be usable if it did get dumped for 11 Keys (It's currently untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199501777908#!/compare/1783382400/1783468800 )