Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/1087009346

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083134207#!/compare/1780876800/1780963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145136439#!/compare/1674172800/1780963200 - Doesn't show on buyers side due to private but all keys match

Sold for 14 keys pure (ID 17129889457)

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/10720930929

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199697483558#!/compare/1773619200/1773705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088458139#!/compare/1773619200/1773705600

Sold for 17 keys pure (ID 16822314097)

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/1946577516

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199286935112#!/compare/1773360000/1773878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199060607882#!/compare/1773792000/1773878400

Bulkish. Sold with a Stormy Storm Crocleather Slouch for Eyes of Molten Beanie the All-Gnawing + 2 keys and a Taunt: The Scaredy-Cat!

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199060607882#!/compare/1774569600/1774656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048558234#!/compare/1774656000/1774742400

Bulkish. Sold with a Professional Killstreak Shooting Star for a Jellyfish Field Trucker's Topper + 4 keys.

(Found a sale for around ~28 for the Trucker which should bring the defiant at ~22 which seems super high. Better used for Trucker)

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048558234#!/compare/1777075200/1780704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198790350355#!/compare/1776988800/1779235200

Untrace

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048558234#!/compare/1777075200/1780704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198791280421#!/compare/1776988800/1777075200

Bulk inventory purchase

Sale 7:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198791280421#!/compare/1779235200/1779321600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198436778223#!/compare/1779235200/1779408000

Untrace, looks like bulk though

Sale 8:

https://scrap.tf/auctions/X3GDMB

Sold for 12 keys and 27.33 ref

This would technically round down to 12 keys.

Then moved to mannco

//

Sellers:

BPTF - None

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/340;5;u35 - None

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Smoking+Defiant+Spartan - None

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Defiant%20Spartan?appid=440&q=Smoking - https://imgur.com/a/VYZjBHy 1 @ $59.01AUD (~16.86 keys)

Sale(s):

14, 17, 12

Excluding 12 keys due to buyers being at 12 for over 2 months.

Going with 14 - 17 keys