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~26.5 keys
miami
Unusual Galvanized Gibus Miami Nights
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Mini for Uber Blaze Airdog


Item 1

https://backpack.tf/item/15509873976

Bot dump


Item 2

https://backpack.tf/item/14318707808


Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021859147#!/compare/1781395200/1781481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132184792#!/compare/1781395200/1781481600

Bot dump for 24 keys 17 ref (https://ibb.co/RkmrjBr9 || https://backpack.tf/item/14318707808, Near ID 17151144490)


Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198380972938#!/compare/1781222400/1781481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021859147#!/compare/1781395200/1781481600

Traded with S. Big Earner for Uber Blaze Airdog (https://ibb.co/QFvjkH52 - courtesy of Taylan)


Item 3

https://backpack.tf/item/13990913622

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198135383528#!/compare/1779753600/1779926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199006829917#!/compare/1643155200/1779840000

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30003;5;u61

$63.99 @ May 26 - use $1.93/key

~33.16 keys

33


Item 4

https://backpack.tf/item/13576275057

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198323187740#!/compare/1776211200/1777766400

Key ID 16944230878 matches only 16 keys and some unusual taunts


Item 5

https://backpack.tf/item/13391702762

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1774137600/1774224000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198447418942#!/compare/1774137600/1774224000

Near ID 16842427983 matches 12 keys


Item 6

https://backpack.tf/item/7956935315


Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085751644#!/compare/1779753600/1779840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199132397846#!/compare/1779753600/1779840000

Bot dump / only 7 keys seen


Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1779667200/1779753600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085751644#!/compare/1779667200/1779753600

Near ID 17076009047

25


Sale 3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278949189#!/compare/1778803200/1778889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1778803200/1778889600

Bot dump / untrace


Sale 4+5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199115434590#!/compare/1778025600/1778198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199227426884#!/compare/1777593600/1778198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199227426884#!/compare/1778716800/1778976000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198278949189#!/compare/1778716800/1778976000

Untrace x2


Sale 6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620388738#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199115434590#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800

27


Item 7

https://backpack.tf/item/7077837083


Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199405818205#!/compare/1777161600/1777248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405497731#!/compare/1776729600/1777248000

Cash


Sale ?

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198796736659#!/compare/1772841600/1776816000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199869691392#!/compare/1776816000/1777766400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199405818205#!/compare/1776729600/1776816000

Suspicious bulk bot dump


Item 8

https://backpack.tf/item/5071014402


Sale 1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004570868#!/compare/1779926400/1780963200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1780272000/1780358400

Bot dump


Sale 2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1779753600/1779840000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004570868#!/compare/1779926400/1779840000

27 keys 15.11 ref

27


Sale 3+4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1778457600/1778544000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1779062400/1779148800

Untrace then bot dump on a week later


Sale 5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198141410845#!/compare/1775260800/1775433600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1775347200/1775433600

Bot dump for 24 keys 24 ref


Sellers

BP - https://i.ibb.co/0yjWpdbq/image.png - 4(+2) sellers; 29 keys for 24 days

MP - https://i.ibb.co/pBkhqdcw/image.png - 3 sellers; $63.99 for 3+ months

SCM - https://i.ibb.co/0Rjh20R4/image.png - none

STN - https://i.ibb.co/rRJm38pW/image.png - 26 keys 37.77 ref (~26.66 keys), 19 days


25, 27, 27, 33

Limited by STN price, buy order at 24.3 with several bot dumps around that value

Take 25 keys flat

    I don't think there's enough justification to exclude 27 Keys here with the data you presented when this was first suggested. That being said, there are some new sales:


    Sold for 21 Keys

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004803157#!/compare/1785283200/1785369600

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198144414148#!/compare/1785369600/1785974400

    2 Keys were used for the black paint it seems.


    Untraceable buyer dump

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198405497731#!/compare/1785110400/1785974400


    Sold for 25 Keys

    https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1784592000/1784678400


    With these new sales and additional context for the 27 Key sales (One of the sales is now outdated, and the other sale was dumped to STN for less), excluding 27 seems fine right now. However, this will still need to be resuggested at 21-25.

      Understood, currently caught up by quite a bit of rl stuff recently, will organize these info and Resuggest as soon as I’m able to

        Regarding the first new sale, I have a different theory:

        21 keys at seller's side (Key ID 17327612100), 23 at buyer's side (all match to the seller in history); Glad stats logged 29 keys

        Apparently, the buyer also sold the Unusual Sky High Fly Guy (seen in the removed items) to another bot for extra keys. They weren't properly logged at the buyer's side, but 6 of the removed keys at Komi's compare have the history "Komi -> Witch's Bot": [17327612169] [17327612173] [17327612178] [17327612181] [17327612185] [17327612188]

        The range of the IDs of the 21 keys at seller's side are 17327612058-17327612154

        Judging from the proximity of the IDs (<50 difference between the 6 keys and the last key ID 17327612154), it should be reasonable to conclude that these 6 keys were also part of the trade and, taking into consideration of the buyer's 23 removed keys, would prove Glad stat's log of 29 keys.


        I'd like to check if you agree with this reasoning; if so, the suggested range would be altered. Still, I will need to review all traceable sales again anyway to confirm what the new range would be.