Sale 2 was 500 Keys for the Paint + Bucket Hat. The Paint has a sale where it sold alongside a Catastrophic Companions (122 Keys) for a Sunbeams Lucky Shot (306.5 Keys) + 50 Keys.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198077555267#!/compare/1785369600/1785542400

356.5 - 122 = 234.5. There wasn't a defined split for the Bucket Hat vs. the Paint in the 500 Key sale, so that won't be usable, but a rough valuation of 265.5 Keys for the Bucket ends up far below 450. It'd be best to leave this outdated until more sales occur.