https://backpack.tf/item/16978941168

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198239815366#!/compare/1777680000/1778025600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189722140#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189722140#!/compare/1779494400/1779580800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199576382232#!/compare/1779494400/1779580800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

155 Keys @ 5/24/2026, 09:52 AM

https://backpack.tf/item/16976038426

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122012288#!/compare/1778457600/1778544000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1778457600/1778544000

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199108134313#!/compare/1778544000/1778630400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198308371114#!/compare/1778544000/1778630400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

142 Keys 0.77 ref @ 5/13/2026, 02:09 AM

https://backpack.tf/item/16957071789

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199858097981#!/compare/1776902400/1776988800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157247515#!/compare/1776902400/1776988800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157247515#!/compare/1777161600/1777248000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198126524060#!/compare/1777161600/1777248000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/16931026730

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198002245914#!/compare/1776470400/1776556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198160231206#!/compare/1775347200/1776556800

1:1 for a Death's Daggers King Cardbeard (155 Keys)

https://backpack.tf/item/16890516405

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018664802#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1777334400/1777420800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097232731#!/compare/1777334400/1777420800

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a166094ca1f65600104b83c#comment-6a16c0383bed89ba8d087b88

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097232731#!/compare/1777334400/1777420800 (ID: 16976880986)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064724507#!/compare/1777075200/1777420800

146 Keys + Non-Craftable Tour of Duty Ticket (23.33 Metal) ~ 146.40 > 146

23.33 / 57.22 ~ 0.40

https://backpack.tf/item/16884552199

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199127401883#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600 (ID: 16949231959)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1776643200/1776729600

139 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198220098345#!/compare/1778803200/1778889600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079831247#!/compare/1778544000/1778889600

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079831247#!/compare/1778889600/1779062400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1778889600/1778976000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/16868158248

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152454602#!/compare/1774828800/1775174400 (ID: 16874493387)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035700550#!/compare/1774828800/1775001600

167 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/16474919172

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1775865600/1775952000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197897816#!/compare/1775952000/1776038400

180 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15891463491

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198113466974#!/compare/1771977600/1772236800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068640262#!/compare/1771891200/1771977600

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068640262#!/compare/1774051200/1774137600 (ID: 16838574410)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198988470254#!/compare/1774051200/1774137600

175 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15372123914

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198114899125#!/compare/1775088000/1775174400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199861086718#!/compare/1775088000/1775174400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199861086718#!/compare/1776124800/1776211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1776124800/1776211200

Bulk for a Burning Flames Hong Kong Cone

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198252999692#!/compare/1776211200/1776297600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024749344#!/compare/1776124800/1776211200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14581572859

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062198188#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14499799152

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198155525660#!/compare/1772323200/1773273600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389549498#!/compare/1772323200/1772409600

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389549498#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1773360000/1773446400 (ID: 16810889704)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1773273600/1773446400

173 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180923509#!/compare/1773446400/1773532800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199236209421#!/compare/1773446400/1773532800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

Bot transfer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199236209421#!/compare/1774915200/1775001600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145069641#!/compare/1774396800/1775001600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

175 Keys @ 4/1/2026, 08:13 PM

https://backpack.tf/item/14334319884

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199029201184#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199125348079#!/compare/1772841600/1772928000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171880122#!/compare/1771286400/1772928000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

175 Keys @ 3/8/2026, 09:50 PM

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198171880122#!/compare/1773705600/1773792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088591924#!/compare/1773705600/1773792000

Cashout

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088591924#!/compare/1773792000/1773878400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198047609644#!/compare/1773705600/1773792000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/13810130903

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198282849447#!/compare/1772755200/1772841600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1772755200/1772841600

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1772928000/1773014400 (ID: 16795738933)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406747729#!/compare/1772928000/1773014400

Half of the keys are untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198406747729#!/compare/1773273600/1773792000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1773187200/1773273600

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1774569600/1774656000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232540316#!/compare/1774656000/1775520000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198232540316#!/compare/1775520000/1775692800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1775520000/1775606400

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145331385#!/compare/1775692800/1775779200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1775692800/1775779200

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

Bot transfer

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198301232852#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell

160 Keys @ 5/6/2026, 08:47 AM

https://backpack.tf/item/13082324877

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117584095#!/compare/1773964800/1775520000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868457283#!/compare/1773964800/1774051200

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198868457283#!/compare/1775952000/1776038400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1775952000/1776038400

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1777420800/1777507200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212223892#!/compare/1777507200/1777593600

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198212223892#!/compare/1777766400/1778198400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1777766400/1777852800

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1778371200/1778457600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198321019586#!/compare/1776211200/1778457600

153 Keys + Negligible Metal

https://backpack.tf/item/12751813520

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108167#!/compare/1773273600/1773360000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108167#!/compare/1779494400/1779580800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1779494400/1779580800

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/item/12626996567

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198412759781#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198418740133#!/compare/1772582400/1772668800

Bulk for a Frostbite Hong Kong Cone

https://backpack.tf/item/12127867817

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199098026893#!/compare/1772236800/1772323200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198168077310#!/compare/1772236800/1772323200

Keys don't seem to be coming from him. The sale would be too high either way.

https://backpack.tf/item/11337173355

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198359191522#!/compare/1773100800/1773532800 (ID: 16817020320)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035700550#!/compare/1773187200/1773532800

164 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035700550#!/compare/1773532800/1773705600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004044801#!/compare/1773532800/1773619200

185 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199004044801#!/compare/1775520000/1775606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330635661#!/compare/1773446400/1775606400

150 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330635661#!/compare/1776470400/1778803200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198147977013#!/compare/1777852800/1779840000

155 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10865719149

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137451517#!/compare/1772582400/1772755200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198855891898#!/compare/1772236800/1772755200

Bulk for a Burning Flames Federal Casemaker

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198855891898#!/compare/1772928000/1773014400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197985538782#!/compare/1772928000/1773014400

172 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10831446659

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198817340647#!/compare/1776038400/1776384000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045749377#!/compare/1772668800/1776384000

Bulk for a Hellfire Steel Shako

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045749377#!/compare/1776384000/1776556800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072667073#!/compare/1776384000/1776470400

Bot dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072667073#!/compare/1776902400/1776988800 (ID: 16958082631)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100015948#!/compare/1776988800/1777507200

Half of the keys are untraceable.

https://backpack.tf/item/10829549641

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1776988800/1777075200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135754692#!/compare/1776988800/1777075200

117 Keys? Most of the keys are likely untraceable.

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199135754692#!/compare/1777593600/1777852800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054448372#!/compare/1769040000/1778544000

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/10828870688

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198967247669#!/compare/1772841600/1774051200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198844148470#!/compare/1773964800/1774051200

169 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10826959456

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133606132#!/compare/1776124800/1776211200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051930593#!/compare/1776038400/1776297600

145 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10785852885

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033450550#!/compare/1778716800/1778803200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089858614#!/compare/1778716800/1778803200

160 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10764335787

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1775260800/1775347200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306036651#!/compare/1772928000/1775347200

Untraceable - He dumped a bunch of items to buy this.

https://backpack.tf/item/10764182140

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163008022#!/compare/1779321600/1779580800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330635661#!/compare/1778803200/1779580800

147 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10748751368

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070723597#!/compare/1775001600/1775433600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070823302#!/compare/1774915200/1775088000

Bulk for a Amaranthine Dr's Dapper Topper

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070823302#!/compare/1775347200/1775433600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051159272#!/compare/1775347200/1775433600

Bulk for a Fifth Dimension Chill Chullo

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198051159272#!/compare/1775520000/1775606400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117384982#!/compare/1775520000/1775606400

Bulk for the Pumpkin Moon Hat Outta Hell

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117384982#!/compare/1775692800/1775779200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063640894#!/compare/1775692800/1775779200

Bulk for a Strange Celestial Summit Wrap-a-Khamon

https://backpack.tf/item/12751813520

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1779753600/1779840000 (ID: 17079794523)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108167#!/compare/1779667200/1779840000

Dumped a Stellar Ascent Mean Captain to rebuy after dumping. Keys are untraceable.

https://backpack.tf/item/15372123914

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1779840000/1779926400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083063978#!/compare/1779840000/1779926400

Cash?

https://backpack.tf/item/16474919172

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199197897816#!/compare/1779840000/1779926400 (ID :17083792963)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198086011812#!/compare/1779926400/1780012800

147 Keys

https://backpack.tf/item/10831446659

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198100015948#!/compare/1779840000/1780272000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1780185600/1780272000

Bot dump

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31216;5;u201

Mar 3, 2026 $325 / $1.92 ~ 169 Keys

Mar 4, 2026 $325 / $1.91 ~ 170 Keys

Mar 10, 2026 $325 / $1.89 ~ 172 Keys

Mar 14, 2026 $384.45 / $1.9 ~ 202 Keys

May 4, 2026 $303.99 / $2 ~ 152 Keys

May 22, 2026 $329.99 / $1.93 ~ 171 Keys

May 23, 2026 $329.99 / $1.92 ~ 172 Keys

Items:

https://backpack.tf/item/15644768301

https://backpack.tf/item/15372123914

https://backpack.tf/item/13234436489

https://backpack.tf/item/12022707856

https://backpack.tf/item/10804111058

https://backpack.tf/item/10786255622

https://backpack.tf/item/10748751368

Sellers:

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Hat%20Outta%20Hell?appid=440&q=Pumpkin%2520Moon ~ 192, 198 Keys

https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Pumpkin+Moon+Hat+Outta+Hell ~ 155 Keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31216;5;u201 4 @ ~ 172 Keys

Classifieds - https://imgur.com/a/aXrXFNN

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a16cc999257edd8f601204a#comment-6a1ea12a1e065eab6d0e29fa

https://backpack.tf/item/17211794093

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038816671#!/compare/1783382400/1783555200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198331514963#!/compare/1783296000/1783382400

Sold for 160 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/17069170511

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198191744974#!/compare/1780185600/1780272000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1780099200/1780185600

Dumped for 120 keys and 55.11 ref.

Rounding up to 121

https://backpack.tf/item/17069170511

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1780099200/1780185600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199091363950#!/compare/1775952000/1780185600

Bought same day for 151 keys~

https://backpack.tf/item/17069170511

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199091363950#!/compare/1780272000/1780358400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199189722140#!/compare/1780358400/1780444800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Hat%20Outta%20Hell&at=2026-07-23T08:56:40.072Z

Looks like dumped for 145

Then MP sale (which I will save for the end)

https://backpack.tf/item/16884552199 - Excluding owner to their bot

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198297474923#!/compare/1782604800/1782691200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1782691200/1782777600

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Hat%20Outta%20Hell&at=2026-07-23T08:42:58.873Z

Sold for 165 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/item/16868158248

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035700550#!/compare/1783900800/1784073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198234818128#!/compare/1783987200/1784678400

Sold for 165 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/item/15891463491

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198988470254#!/compare/1780444800/1780704000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1780617600/1780704000

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/15891463491

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089253101#!/compare/1780790400/1780876800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199144499175#!/compare/1780790400/1780963200

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/15681370428 - Excluding trade back and forth

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199487598643#!/compare/1781308800/1781481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1781308800/1781395200

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/15681370428

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1782000000/1782086400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199241379588#!/compare/1780790400/1782086400

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/15372123914

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198083063978#!/compare/1782172800/1782259200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198983723457#!/compare/1781308800/1782259200

Sold for 155 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14977265942

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042165719#!/compare/1781395200/1781654400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1781654400/1781740800

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Pumpkin%20Moon%20Hat%20Outta%20Hell&at=2026-07-23T08:52:29.894Z

Sold for 160 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14581572859

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198797266244#!/compare/1783555200/1783641600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1783555200/1783641600

Sold for a Miami Nights Crone's Dome (Not in date though this does seem high)

https://backpack.tf/item/14087031707

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048724906#!/compare/1781913600/1782000000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180303495#!/compare/1781913600/1782172800

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/item/14087031707

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199177132803#!/compare/1783987200/1784073600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198180303495#!/compare/1784073600/1784505600

Dumped for ?? Doesn't show up on glad

https://backpack.tf/item/12751813520 - Lol, this is just a bunch of purchases and redumps to stn. They all fit within the 145 - 160 range anyway

Going to show this though most recent sale:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1783209600/1783296000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198335586711#!/compare/1783209600/1784073600

Sold for 157 (Burning Flames Impact Impaler was dumped to stn and then those keys were used with this) (ID 17226060864)

https://backpack.tf/item/11614417632 - Trade with scammer

https://backpack.tf/item/10782174434

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061108167#!/compare/1780963200/1781827200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1781740800/1781827200

Sold with 43 keys for a Cursed Forever! Hat Outta Hell. Better used there

https://backpack.tf/item/10782174434

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198218969497#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

Only 76 keys show which isn't right

https://backpack.tf/item/10764182140

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198330635661#!/compare/1780963200/1781308800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214711400#!/compare/1781049600/1781308800S

Sold for 150 keys pure

https://backpack.tf/item/10764182140

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198261483133#!/compare/1783296000/1783382400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198214711400#!/compare/1783296000/1783382400

Bulk for Demonflame Fruit Shoot

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31216;5;u201

$329.99 on the 1st and 16th of July

Keys were $1.82 on the 1st (329.99/1.82) = 181

Keys were $1.85 on the 16th (329.99/1.82) = 178

New sales

160, 121, 151, 145, 165, 165, 155, 160, 157, 181, 178

In order combined with old sales

121, 139, 142, 145, 145, 146, 147, 147, 150, 151, 152, 153, 155, 155, 155, 155, 155, 157, 160, 160, 160, 160, 164, 165, 165, 167, 169, 169, 170, 171, 172, 172, 172, 172, 173, 175, 175, 175, 178, 180, 181, 185, 202

Going with 145 as the low end seems fine given the amount of sales at that range.

Though for the high end based on the new sales there is more of a cluster at 165 and current sellers match this. Anything over I don't think would work due to unsolds.

I would personally go 145 - 165 to cover more of the sales (given that the mean is roughly 161.5 I would rather go slightly higher to account for this also)

Avatar ★ Moose · posted about 5 hours ago