Item 1: https://backpack.tf/item/13208108221

Sale 1:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199067898603#!/compare/1782432000/1784592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1784246400/1784332800

Dumped to Quicksell.Store alongside the Tainted Frost Ol' Reliable (bulk and untraceable)

Sale 2:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199110809353#!/compare/1784419200/1784505600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198415819531#!/compare/1784419200/1784592000

Untrace

Item 2: https://backpack.tf/item/13204630967

Sale 3:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199550301253#!/compare/1784073600/1784160000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198175456289#!/compare/1784160000/1784246400

Sold alongside 44 ref (0.68 keys) for 4 keys (~3.3 keys)

Item 3: https://backpack.tf/item/12448765273

Sale 4:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054037654#!/compare/1781395200/1781481600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198361994521#!/compare/1778284800/1781481600

Sold for 3 keys

Item 4: https://backpack.tf/item/12176831540

Sale 5:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198157626241#!/compare/1781308800/1781395200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120172574#!/compare/1781308800/1781395200

Sold for 2 keys 25 ref (~2.4 keys)

Sale 6:

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120172574#!/compare/1781308800/1781395200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000527551#!/compare/1781136000/1782259200

Untrace (sold the same day)

Item 5: https://backpack.tf/item/12176876489

Sale 7:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31292;5;u3123

Sold for $9.99 on June 2 2026

Keys were $1.93 https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

9.99/1.93=5.17 ~5.2 keys

Sales: 2.4, 3, 3.3, 5.2

Sellers and buyers:

BPTF - https://imgur.com/3iNa5V8 Seller at 5 keys (3 months), buyers up to 2.08 keys

MPTF - https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31292;5;u3123 Seller at $9.49 (~4.95 keys)

STN - https://stntrading.eu/item/tf2/Unusual+Wildflower+Meadows+Taunt%3A+Shanty+Shipmate Buy order at ~2.2 keys

SCM - https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Shanty%20Shipmate?appid=440&q=Wildflower+Meadows https://imgur.com/7vigXXr No sellers, buy order at 5.44€ (~2.75 keys)

5.2 looks like an outlier given the 2 lower sellers, one being there for 3 months. 2.4 is on the low side too since on SCM people are offering more for any effect. Going with 3-3.3 keys with an outlier on each end.