fixing

https://backpack.tf/item/16781406775

-24 keys pure: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198122445678#!/compare/1778371200/1778457600

https://backpack.tf/item/14327621567

-Tradeback.

https://backpack.tf/item/13834845238

-Bulk: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199775540218#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400

-Untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199101376092#!/compare/1783641600/1783728000 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199775540218#!/compare/1783641600/1783728000

-Bulk: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199775540218#!/compare/1783728000/1783814400 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199523308593#!/compare/1783728000/1783814400

-Untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199523308593#!/compare/1783814400/1783900800 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1783814400/1783900800

-Dumped to stn for ~19 keys: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198310750043#!/compare/1783814400/1783900800 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1783814400/1783900800

https://backpack.tf/item/14982116364

-Untraceable stn dump: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042999638#!/compare/1778112000/1778284800 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000

-Bought from stn to redump on qsstore. Hard to trace: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199697483558#!/compare/1778284800/1778371200

-Untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059800460#!/compare/1784332800/1784419200 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198151746404#!/compare/1784332800/1784419200

https://backpack.tf/item/16174919595

-Untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059632349#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143715421#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000

-Used to pay for other stn hats: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143715421#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600

-Untraceable: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1778025600/1778112000 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163917095#!/compare/1777939200/1778025600

-Ignoring tradeback.

-Bulk for batsaber: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198163917095#!/compare/1778198400/1778284800 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434004153#!/compare/1778112000/1778198400

-~15 keys? Looks like buyers have risen quite a bit since then: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198434004153#!/compare/1778371200/1778457600 https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620388738#!/compare/1778371200/1778457600

19-24. Obviously buyers have risen a bit but we have a ton of untrace sales around when buyers were lower too which supports including buyer price at the time of those sales.

mod input:

The issue I have with this is that not only are we using a sale that's far below current buyers, but it's also a buyer dump itself. That combination is enough for me to deem it an outlier.

Moreover, I'm not fully confident the sale was for a flat 19 Keys either considering buyers at the time of that sale were already up to ~20 Keys: https://archivist.tf/history?item=Orbiting+Fire+Tough+Stuff+Muffs&at=2026-07-13

New sales:

Sold for 21 Keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199620388738#!/compare/1785628800/1785715200

Untrace

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198237169056#!/compare/1785801600/1786147200

Untrace dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198373573340#!/compare/1786060800/1786147200

Untrace dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199211471137#!/compare/1786060800/1786147200

Untrace dump

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199810053993#!/compare/1787011200/1787097600

STN sold, then instantly got dumped back to STN

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199581722058#!/compare/1785715200/1785628800

STN is currently buying for ~22 Keys and selling for ~23 Keys, so both would fall within this range if they were traceable.

Since we have a proper sale at 21 Keys, we should use that as the low end instead. Even if buyers have risen yet again, they shouldn't invalidate the previous data point (they were at ~20 Keys when you first suggested this: https://archivist.tf/history?item=Orbiting+Fire+Tough+Stuff+Muffs&at=2026-07-30 )

21-24 will be ok here.