Sale 1:

Sold to STN for 14 keys + 6 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1782086400/1782172800

https://backpack.tf/item/14390855225

= 14 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 14 keys + 17 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072652703#!/compare/1783987200/1784073600 - Near ID: 17262798633

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198437849017#!/compare/1783900800/1784073600

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Mourning+Mercs&at=2026-07-14&range=3 - B/O confirms

https://backpack.tf/item/14423316664

= 14 keys

Sale 3:

Sold for 11 keys + ~3 keys in stranges/cosmetics

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199697483558#!/compare/1787097600/1787184000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124543312#!/compare/1787097600/1787270400

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Mourning+Mercs&at=2026-08-19&range=3 - B/O of 14 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15310156782

= 14 keys

Marketplace Sales:

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31413;5;u3003

https://backpack.tf/item/16596329444 - August 3rd

$29.99, August 3rd & 26th

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Mourning+Mercs&at=2026-08-02&range=3 - No B/O on the August 3rd one

Couldn’t find the other history, has no B/O though

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6 - keys were:

$1.85, August 3rd

$1.88, August 26th

29.99/1.85 = 16.211, rounds to 16 keys

29.99/1.88 = 15.952, rounds to 16 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198882175555#!/compare/1781481600/1781568000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1781481600/1781568000

https://backpack.tf/item/14390855225

Untraceable, some metal matches

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1786838400/1786924800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198375543387#!/compare/1786838400/1786924800

https://backpack.tf/item/14390855225

Sold for Vivid Plasma Cool Capuchon + 2 keys. Without knowing STN’s B/O here, it would be best to not use this sale.

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198192632255#!/compare/1781395200/1783036800

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199072652703#!/compare/1782000000/1782086400

https://backpack.tf/item/14423316664

Untraceable, some metal matches

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198870321581#!/compare/1787011200/1787097600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054848760#!/compare/1786924800/1787097600

https://backpack.tf/item/14965578789

Untraceable, 4 keys match

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198054848760#!/compare/1786924800/1787097600 - Near ID: 17429488009

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1787011200/1787097600

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Mourning+Mercs&at=2026-08-18 - Buy order was 12 keys + 6.55 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/14965578789

Untraceable, 3 keys + negligible metal match

#6

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850121720#!/compare/1786579200/1786665600 - Near ID: 17403805444

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198024030351#!/compare/1786579200/1786665600

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Holy+Grail+Taunt%3A+Mourning+Mercs&at=2026-08-13&range=3 - B/O of 14 keys + 30 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/16585325558

15 keys match. This most likely sold with half a key in metal to make up the change. Even if this sale doesn’t get used, it should support 14.

https://backpack.tf/item/14154200767 - bot/owner transfer

https://backpack.tf/item/14179285343 - unusualified before put on mannco

https://backpack.tf/item/14438476503 - gambling-related. Nothing useful here.

https://backpack.tf/item/15465600787 - mannco

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/wRsPAdj.png

https://backpack.tf/item/14965578789 - ~12.2 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/17033930788 - ~13.1 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14390855225- ~14.6 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/14154200767 - 15 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31413;5;u3003

https://backpack.tf/item/15848850339 - $29.99

https://backpack.tf/item/15431967720 - $29.99

https://backpack.tf/item/15289464278 - $29.99

https://backpack.tf/item/14979666380 - $39.99

https://backpack.tf/item/14878045629 - $89.99

https://backpack.tf/item/15538811763 - $89.99

https://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Unusual%20Taunt%3A%20Mourning%20Mercs?appid=440&q=grail&detail=532138532254232826

$154.93 AUD (~45 keys)

Sales at:

14 (3x)

16 (2x, marketplace)

We have a seller at 12 keys. We at least have a couple bot dumps to support, especially #5 which was most likely 12 keys + 6.55 ref. Bit of a stretch to set a low end like this with the next highest sale being 14, but we have strong support for 14.

Using the seller at 12 as our low end.

16 is gonna be an outlier with the sellers in mind, and I don’t want to be stretching the range that much further from the sellers. Excluding 16.

Taking 12-14 keys.