for the marketplace sales, you'll wanna divide the amount it sold for by the price of keys on marketplace on the day of the sales. only sales within the last 3 months are valid, so you only need to look at August 11th and 20th

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6

keys were $1.91 on August 11th and $1.89 on August 20th

https://backpack.tf/item/9308629606 - August 20th sale

94.99/1.91 = ~50 keys

94.99/1.89 = ~50 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1785024000/1785110400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199057285337#!/compare/1785024000/1785196800

https://backpack.tf/item/17118859914

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1781049600/1781136000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871682264#!/compare/1780963200/1781136000

https://archivist.tf/history?item=Aces+High+Killer+Exclusive&at=2026-06-10 - B/O of 50

https://backpack.tf/item/15426162675

Untraceable, 31 keys match

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198871682264#!/compare/1784160000/1784937600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202977787#!/compare/1784160000/1784246400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Aces%20High%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-09-04T00:38:23.434Z - labelled as 38 keys + 16 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/15426162675

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199202977787#!/compare/1785715200/1785801600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299715717#!/compare/1785542400/1785974400

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Aces%20High%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-09-04T00:38:23.434Z - labelled as 41 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/15426162675

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198299715717#!/compare/1786752000/1787443200

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199827776527#!/compare/1783814400/1786752000

https://backpack.tf/item/15426162675

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198139479419#!/compare/1785456000/1785888000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1785715200/1785801600

https://backpack.tf/item/2661018266

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1787184000/1787270400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198275680807#!/compare/1787097600/1787270400

https://backpack.tf/item/2661018266

43 keys + ~1 key in metal

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198992716865#!/compare/1786147200/1786320000 - won't update

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199783696781#!/compare/1786233600/1786320000

https://backpack.tf/item/9308629606

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199783696781#!/compare/1786233600/1786320000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199389239431#!/compare/1786233600/1786320000

https://gladiator.tf/sales?item=Aces%20High%20Killer%20Exclusive&at=2026-09-04T00:38:23.434Z - labelled as 39 keys + 5.33 ref

https://backpack.tf/item/9308629606

Untraceable

https://backpack.tf/item/14843494310 - mannco, no sales

With this info, you should resuggest at 44-50 keys.