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The stinkiest hat.
1 of 1 as far as I can tell:
https://backpack.tf/premium/search?item=Toy%20Soldier&quality=5&tradable=1&craftable=1&australium=-1&particle=12&killstreak_tier=0&elevated=11&spell=None
https://backpack.tf/item/17347662132
SALE 1: Aug 3
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1785628800/1785715200
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198970587989#!/compare/1785542400/1785715200
Sold with 13 keys, 85.66 ref, and 26 craft hats for a Startrance Hawaiian Hunter
Keys were 57.22 ref on Aug 3, as per https://backpack.tf/suggestion/6a0814c7a9718db95d0a24cd
Craft hats: https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Random%20Craft%20Hat/Tradable/Craftable
26*1.33 = 34.66
(85.66 + 34.66) / 57.22 = 120.33 / 57.22 = 2.1
13 + 2.1 = 15.1, rounding to 15
Hawaiian Hunter Mini:
Marketplace.tf sale on Aug 9 for $43.20: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31271;5;u245
Keys were $1.90 on Aug 9: https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/5021;6
= 43.20/1.90 = 22.7, rounding to 23
quicksell.store also sells the Startrance Hawaiian Hunter for 26 keys 30 ref as of today (9/13/2026), but since I don't know of a way to trace how much it was during this sell, and there's no way to link directly to any sale, I'm not sure its value can be used here.
https://i.gyazo.com/2b6c8169250ff777efddc1b42c1aa2cb.png
23 - 15 = 8 keys
Quicksell for under the price of the non-strange variant to a Quicksell.store bot that probably based its buy price on the non-strange variant since the Strange one has no price. I'm gonna say this one is invalid.
SALE 2: Sept 13
Buyer: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066032444#!/compare/1789257600/1789344000
Seller: https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1789257600/1789344000
Screenshots:
https://i.gyazo.com/d0af604c1f247d1ef622ebebc9b8a823.png
https://i.gyazo.com/a44885bf1362fd0bba19947c795e714a.png
= 20 keys
I believe sale 2 is still valid even though they're both quicksell.store bots because the price is clearly adjusted to account for the Strange quality, while sale 1 clearly isn't. I'll be happy to resuggest if someone has a good reason to disagree or if a moderator asks me to.
Anyway, the hat is in my collection now. It's not going anywhere.
I'll always welcome any counterproof, supporting proof, and constructive criticism if you've seen something I've missed.
Cheers!