Sale 1:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1784505600/1784592000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198788798116#!/compare/1784246400/1784678400

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

= 3 keys

Sale 2:

Sold for 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1781913600/1782000000 - Near ID: 17174095607

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199681973397#!/compare/1781827200/1782000000

https://backpack.tf/item/9548938321

= 3 keys

Sale 3:

Sold to STN for 2 keys + 21 ref

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198836757260#!/compare/1782864000/1782950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1782864000/1782950400

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

Keys were ~57.22 ref at the time

= 2.35 keys

Other Sales:

#1

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060832268#!/compare/1782432000/1782864000

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199830130823#!/compare/1782864000/1782950400

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

Most likely scammed

#2

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199830130823#!/compare/1782864000/1782950400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198836757260#!/compare/1782864000/1782950400

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

Fenced

#3

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198788798116#!/compare/1784246400/1784678400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199733098719#!/compare/1784419200/1784851200

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

Bulk for Spooky Night Carlton

#4

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199733098719#!/compare/1784851200/1785801600

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199059698603#!/compare/1785715200/1785801600

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217

Bulk to qsstore, likely for the Phantom Plague Strikeout

#5

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199681973397#!/compare/1782432000/1782518400

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198311498888#!/compare/1782345600/1782432000

https://backpack.tf/item/9548938321

2 keys + some metal match. The seller clearly bought a key with some of the metal that was involved. This sale’s likely to be around 2 keys and 20 ref, with keys being ~57 ref at the time.

This follows the 2nd 3 key sale.

https://backpack.tf/item/7447200821 - qsstore

Sellers:

https://i.imgur.com/PYoQn0V.png

https://backpack.tf/item/9510714217 - 3 keys

https://backpack.tf/item/9573904195 - 3 keys

https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/30921;5;u3053

https://backpack.tf/item/9639922015 - $9.69

Sales at:

2.35

3 (2x)

We have several bot dumps that support a lower price than 3. #4 is bulk, but qsstore would’ve valued the item at their buy order price. I could also be wrong about it being for the hat, it could’ve been for keys. There are currently no buyers at ~2.35 keys, STN is the highest at 2 keys + 8.88 ref: https://i.imgur.com/UjLsYy2.png

One of the 3 key sales is also invalid as it had re-sold to STN at a loss, giving less strength to the 3 key price point.

Taking 2.35-3 keys.