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After searching through nearly every bud to keys trade on the outpost, I've concluded that people selling buds for less than 26 keys is not common. When they do, they're out of stock quickly.
Link 1: Only non-gifted bud seller I could find on the outpost with a price lower than 26 keys. Of course he/she is now out of stock.
Link 2: 26 keys
Link 3: 26 keys
Link 4: 27 keys
Link 5: 26 keys. Cheapest non-gifted bud seller I could find on tf2tp.
Prices on the outpost fluctuate anywhere from 26-30 keys. The majority of bud owners do not sell for keys, and if they do, they want more than the market value. Any buds that do show up on the market for less than 26 keys are being bought up quickly. The majority of bud sellers everywhere want at least 26 keys each. The current range does not accurately reflect the average moving price of buds to keys as tf2finance.com will confirm. I am not claiming that it is impossible to find buds for less than 26 keys, but the number of people selling for less than 26 keys is not even close to enough to supply the market. Commence shitstorm.
Thanks for the evidence, not sure if this is completely correct but at least it's not like those bud sellers that just want to bring the price up for profit. You seem to be an active bud seller, I upvoted 'cause I trust your evidence, but I'll go into more in-depth research on this one. I see 26 key trades all the time, but I've never checked if they were gifted or not.
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8628615 - 26 keys - Sold already
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8628229 - 26 keys
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8627897 - 26 keys
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=8626643 - 26 keys
However, it must be possible to buy at 25, but they'll probably be duped/gifted buds. Somebody try to test out putting a post up with "Buying buds at 25 keys."
Just providing evidence.
Nobody on Trade Post selling for 25.
STAHP DEH INFLATE DEH EARBILLS, SITE IS CORRUPT HUEHUENice pieces of evidence you got us, but yeah, I'd like to bring an old friend to counter your suggestion :
[url]http://tf2finance.com/[/url]
tf2finance shows the average moving price of buds to keys, if the average is almost 26 keys (25.94 as of my writing this), then there must be a lot of trades happening at 26 keys or higher. Not quite sure how your old friend is countering my suggestion.
That does seem pretty definitive at 26 keys, not sure how thats a counter
Your suggestion states 26-27 keys, which averages at 26.5 keys, so 1.37 ref more than what is stated by the old friend.
A range of 25-27 keys, or even just a price of 26 keys, would be more accurate.
If I had it my way, the price would be nailed down to a firm 26 keys. But on items this expensive, there almost needs to be a 1 key range due to the price deviation on the market. (e.g. theres always going to someone selling the same item for a little less or a little more)
The low end of the current price range is not really sustainable as I've tried to provide evidence for. The amount of sellers below 26 keys is not enough to supply the amount of buyers. The amount of sellers at 26-27 keys is.
Why not a 25.5 - 26.5 range then? I know it's hard to search for proofs on trade servers, but the old friend does, and you didn't.
What bothers me most in this suggestion is that you only let room to an increase of price.
Buds tend currently more to 26 keys than 27 keys, but with that range, you speculate that buds could reach an average of 27 keys by next week. You may be right, but that is speculation.
I have not done any speculating here, only reporting what I've been able to find with what I have access to. There are many traders asking for 27 keys for buds. There are also many traders asking for 26 keys. But there are only a handful of traders (if any are left) willing to take 25 keys. I chose this range because it is the most common asking price range on tf2outpost and tf2tp as far as I can tell.
Prices seem to be legit. Upvoted.
yup, i like your point, i sell one a few weeks ago for 27 keys in one hour. Upvote.
Weeks ago.......... Did you realize anything that happened in the last two weeks?
Sorry, english fail, im argentinian. A week ago*
Ok, makes more sense now.
Hard to find for less than 25 keys (on the seller's side).
But there are many trader that sell for 26 keys.
So why should the price be 27 keys upper range, when you find plenty of them for 26 keys?
You need some evidence of buds trading for 27 keys to verify this range.
PS: 26 keys is still in the current range.
Plenty of sellers at 26-27 keys, hardly any at 25 keys, so what do you suggest the range should be?
The problem is, yes there should be a range, but Earbuds mostly sell for a straight amount of keys and not x keys + 1.33 ref (so a range e.g. of 25.5-26.5 is not acceptable imo). Now nearly all buds are bought/sold at 26 keys straight, some for more, some for less. As I said 26 keys straight as a suggestion makes no sense, but now it would be the most accurate. So a range with 26 keys in the middle would be my suggestion, like 25-27 keys.
PS: I still don't see any buds being sold for 27 keys, maybe you can spend some links?
I've done all the digging I'm willing to do for today. If buds are rarely/never trading for 25 keys I don't see any reason to include it in the price range.
Same thing for 27 keys. Why include it when they are rarely/never traded for it?
There are a lot of sellers asking for 27 keys, there are almost no sellers asking 25 keys. That is why it is included.
Found one: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6215897 (The 25 crates are pretty wothless...)
And again, just because people put higher buyouts, that's not meant, that they are selling them (for that). All that is important here is for what prices items were traded, not their buyouts.
And evidence shows that 26 keys is a more common trade point than 25 keys. Meaning the current price is inaccurate in comparison. Not sure where you're going with this.
And 27 keys is inaccurate too. As I said 25-27 would be a better range at the moment.
Feel free to downvote and make your own suggestion then.
What Pomf | Woifi said is right. People rarely buy/sell buds at X Keys + 1.33 Ref
They are always in whole numbers.
more than 70% trades today are at 26 Keys. 20% at 25 Keys. 10% at 27 Keys.
I would have suggested a 26 Keys but I know this community doesn't like things without a range.
I love how backpack.tf works. I really do. But I wish there was a freaking function that would ensure that people who make price suggestions realize that whatever price we settle at, sellers will always sell for higher. In particular, this happens with buds and keys. When we suggest that the top end is 27 keys, sellers will sell for 28 keys. Then some guy, like yourself, will bring evidence of trades occurring at 28. And this will continue to rise, just like keys have continued until there is a crash (hopefully). Just leave it be.
And theres also people that try to 'quickbuy' everything at less than what backpack.tf lists as the price. It goes both ways. I have no hidden agenda and have not sold an earbud for pure keys in months. Just reporting what I've been able to find. 25 keys is still do-able for now, but its becoming really rare.
I am not concerned with quickbuyers in regards to buds. With keys and buds, the power lies in the hands of the seller, not the buyer. If the seller waits long enough, he can get whatever he wants because buds are always in demand. All I am saying is that once this passes, which it likely will, within 2 weeks, there will be another one of these up for 27-28 because sellers will have raised the high mark to 28 keys. It happens ALL the time.
Lol, and once more, the reason why 25 is rare, is because sellers ALWAYS go for the highest amount they can get. THEY ARE IN CHARGE. Not the quickbuyers. After a week, we wont be able to find sellers selling for 26 keys (which will be the new low) either. Watch and see.
http://tf2finance.com/2012_11/
"The impact of price guide / price list making sudden changes to a certain item is overestimated.The general public does adjust their trading pattern according to such websites. Changing the value for 1-2 days has virtually no impact on the market. "
Yes, when bud prices on backpack.tf went from 28-29 keys to 25-26 within a day or two last week, it had no impact on the market. /sarcasm
BPTF is a bible that dictates the prices, that's why the market followed it like a sheep, not the other way round. /irony
BPTF is stating what the market is. At the time the 25-26 range came, the market was like that BEFORE BPTF.
when the keys are rising.not be 27 key but will be in next days
Keys are not rising anymore. They peaked before the halloween event ended.
It Was pretty impossible to buy @ less than 26 Keys Each for Buds. I Bought About 23 Buds @ 26 Keys Each. And some of the buyers who were selling @ 26 Keys didn't want to sell to me anymore @ 26 Keys and Started selling them @ 27 Keys Each.
Thank you for the info, it sorta confirms my suspicions.
Downvoted. Bought 6 as 25 keys each with almost no effort, just posting.
Didn't know 6 buds could supply the entire economy. Ty for the info.
Read the entire message.
lol, you're one of those guys eh?
Didn't know that 5 links could represent the whole earbud economy.
Didn't suggest that they did, but tf2finance does a pretty good job of that. :)
I can agree with that, slightly. xD
Downvoted: price is still at 25 - 26 keys, but it's slowly going on 26 keys and for the 27 keys link, the post is a day old (or maybe even older) and he still didn't sell his bud. There's a lack of evidence for the 27keys range.
25-26 is still the most common traded price right now. Very few trades are happening at 27, compared to 25-26.