1 of 1 hat, 1 legitimate sale behind it. Setting a flat price at that trade value, a range can be developed in the future when more trades have occured. For better formatting, details in comments.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8826575 - These three unusuals came from the one who traded for the green confetti exectuioner

http://www.tf2items.com/profiles/76561198030125304?time=1361370503

http://www.tf2items.com/profiles/76561198030125304?time=1361612003

Item histories show nothing moving outside the unusuals in question- nothing was added on either side. Only items disappearing are the Fez, Batter's, and Phantom, only item appearing is the Executioner.

Therefore, the trade: Green Confetti Executioner for Smoking Fez (1.5-1.7, out of date) + Blizzard Batter's (1-1.3, out of date) + Green Confetti Phantom (1.9-2.3)

Smoking Fez is 4 months old, but-

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8784830 - Offer of 1.5 a week ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8679761 - Separate offer of 1.5 a week ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8926180 - B/O of 1.5, young trade

Treating as 1.5.

Blizzard Batter's is also 4 months old.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8585139 - 1 bud + 5 keys a week ago, Green Fetti Ballcap a week ago which itself gets very easy 1.3 bud offers ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8823955 , http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8677868 )

Going to call the old price out of date and treat it as 1.3.

Phantom's price is recent and holds up, it's getting easy 2 bud offers. Treating as 2 buds.

So treating each unusual at what appears to be easy to sell prices to account for overpay, 1.5 + 1.3 + 2 = 4.8.