Old price. Let's take a look to see how it has changed.

Link #1 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9399567 (1 week)

Offers:

Steaming Cosa Nostra (24-30 keys)

Orbiting Fire Buccaneer (1.2-1.4 buds) = ~1.2 buds

Link #2 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9430815 (6 days)

No offers.

Link #3 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9260206 NOTE: Same hat as in link 1

Traded along with 7.5 buds for a Circling Hearts Villain's Veil (8.4-9.4 buds) = ~1.2 buds

Link #4 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8837288 NOTE: Same hat as in links 1 & 3

Sold for 1 bud, Vintage Safe 'n Sound, Vintage Mining Hat, and Vintage Engineer's Cap = ~1.1 buds

Seller estimates this at about 35 keys, but if it sold for what was said in OP, it was well below that amount.

Link #5 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8505987

Sold for 1 bud + 5 keys

Link #6 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8213750

Sold for 1 bud + ~2 keys in sweets

Analysis:

Only 2 active trades up and one is completely useless. Took a look at some of the histories and came up with a pretty tight range of previous sales. Some of the sales are a little over a month old, but the evidence would be a bit thin if I had left them out. Everyone got at least 1.1 buds out of this, so there's the low. Link 1 has an offer within a week at 1.2 and link 3 sold for just under 1.3, so I'm setting the high end there for potential's sake.