Suggestion: Circling Heart Modest Pile of Hat at 246.23–284.12 keys

Price Suggestion

~34.5 keys

heart

35 votes up

3 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Sat, 27 Apr 13 07:39:33 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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Comments

3 on OP across 4 trades. Current price is 4 months old. Looks to have fallen a little.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9343188

Eerie Cannonball (10.4) + Blizz. Geezer (1.1) + Bubbles Handle (0.8) + Orb. Fire Coupe (0.8) = 13.1

Hearts Bomber (16.7) + 1 pure = 17.7

Offers sit around the 11 - 13 range, with the exception of the Hearts Bomber, which may just have been an outlier.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9392651

All current offers are listed in his trade. Top offer pure is 12 + sweets, and top unusual offers are 7 + G. Energy Tyrants (5.9) + a bill's = 13.3; Scorching Milkman (7.5) + Ghosts Milkman (3.9) + 1 pure = 12.4; and Moon Tossle (11.4).

Offers range from around 11 to 13, just like in the first trade.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10088485

Nuts Ten Gallon (2.8) + Beams Flamenco (10.5) = 13.3

Burning Hottie's Hoodie (13)

HOUWAR (11.5) + 1 pure + 10 keys ~= 13

Burning Tossle (13) + potential sweets

Burning Bicorne (17.9) for the Modest + 3 buds = 14.9

Offers are higher than in the previous trades, capping at around 15 in unusuals, and the lowest decent offers at 13. Note that this is possibly a dupe of link 1.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9304415 A previous sale.

Using bp.tf's pricings, we have Flies KE (8.1) + Beams Stuntman (3) + 2 = 13.1. However, the purchaser then sold the KE for 10 pure, which is well above the price we have for it.

Using his sale at 10 pure, we have 10 + 3 + 2 = 15. Accounting for overpay, this could have gone either end of the range.

In conclusion, the offers show that it would be fairly easy to get 12 buds for this hat, and there were offers of far higher than that in the Hearts Bomber and the Burning Bicorne (Although I've disregarded the Bomber in the range because it was simply so much higher than all other offers). Accounting for overpay in all the offers, 11.5 - 13.5 seems around right. If you disagree, please post something.

As a quick note, here's how I calculated the range:

13 * 0.9 = 11.7, the low end

13.3 * 0.9 = 12, as the most common offer.

12 pure sits in the range.

The highest offer excluding the Bomber was the Bicorne at 14.9, 14.9 * 0.9 ~= 13.5.

17.7 * 0.9 ~= 16, but it was too far removed, I counted it as an outlier.

Just a heads up, but I think your 1st and 3rd link might be dupes of the same hat.

Looks like you're right, thanks.

You shouldn't consider just offers, look at what previous owners sold their for as well

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9304415 - Sold for Flies KE (7.5-8.7 buds) + Beams Stuntman (2.6-3.4 buds) + Max (2)

But then he did this http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9348866

So eh

Not sure how to value the KE in that, since he sold it for 10 pure.

Regardless, using bp.tf's pricings, we have 8.1 + 3 + 2 = 13.1 * 0.9 = 11.7

And using his sale at 10 pure, we have 10 + 3 + 2 = 15 * 0.9 = 13.5

So it could have gone either end of the range? :S

Yes, but just saying, proof of sold hats is much better than proof of offers if you're trying to lower something, since offers that weren't taken - specially for high valued hats - don't really mean the value's gone down, just maybe the item takes its time to sell.

Good point.