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Another unusual Berliner's with weather effect looks like it's a bit overestimated. Proofs:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10184487 <= a week old trade, B/O: 1.5 buds
Offers:
none
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9761865 <= a month old trade, B/O: 1.5 buds
Offers:
none
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10319627 <= a week old trade, B/O: 1.75 buds
Offers:
orbiting fire ol' snaggletooth (1.3–1.6 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/6889237 <= 4 months old trade, B/O: 2 buds
Offers:
none in last month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9769433 <= a month old trade, no B/O
Offers:
2 lowballs
Stormy Storm Connoisseur's Cap (1.2–1.5 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10237185 <= sold probably for buds + bill's
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9453536 <= a month old trade, B/O: 2.5 buds
Offers:
25 keys (can't find confirmation of this offer)
Yes, this needs to go down, but maybe in another range. Like 1.3-1.5
I've made 1.2 as lower value because trades with 1.5 B/O don't have even one offer. If there was any pure offer I would make a suggestion with a bit more than 1.2 buds
actually your first link has an offer right now, a stormy whoopee cap, which is 1.3-1.5 buds. Also, I noticed that on some other trades where you wrote "no offers" there are in fact some - I am too tired to sort that out right now, but will see if I can do that tomorrow (at the very least it's quite misleading)
Bud + bills is closer to 1.4 than 1.2, and the untaken offers are also around 1.3 range. I think that would be more fair as a low price.