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So my last suggestion got closed because the price decrease was too extreme. But, this hat SERIOUSLY needs a price change so, I've created a better range with more recent offers.
For Unusuals I will take their highest price on bp.tf and then multiply by .9 to cover overpay.
First off, the current owner purchased it for a max head and 2 buds which is~4.2-4.4 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10561535 ). Let's say 4.3 buds
The unusual is one of one so I'll post the history of the trades of the current owner (~3 weeks long).
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10574032 - 1st trade Taking nothing lower than 6 pure but, no offers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10601761 - 2nd trade, B/O of 10 pure, no offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10639888 - 3rd trade, B/O of ~7.5 buds pure, only official offer of a PE Conquistador (~2.7 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10684395 - 4th trade No B/O and no offers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10734658 - 5th trade, B/O of 8 buds pure but no real concrete offers.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10940783 - #6 Most Recent Trade. 5 buds pure "quicksell" and still no takers
(offered to sell on reddit for 5 pure as well a few days ago http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1f5d49 and recently http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1fdes4 only asking for ~5buds, could go lower?)
OFFERS OF:
Memory Leak Dragonborn = No price set
Purple Energy Barnstormer (No offer in comments, private add?) = No price set
Smoking Softcap and Tricorne (No offer in comments, private add?) = ~1.8
Max Head = 2.2-2.4
Offers of Blizz Storm Trophy Belt + 1 bud = ~2.3-2.4 buds
Stormy Storm Brainiac = ~3-3.1 buds
Green Energy Tree = ~3.6 buds
Steaming Killer Exclusive = ~3.8-3.9
Orb. Fire YWN + 1 bud + #99 Head Warmer (no good prices for craft numbers, but bp.tf is VERY generous and says 2 buds) = ~4.2 buds
Nuts n Bolts Brainiac = ~4.9 (high end)
So for the low end I put 4.3 as that's around what it sold for last time. High end is the offer of a Nuts n Bolts Brainiac which is the highest offer the thing has gotten in 3-4 weeks.
Problem with lowering the price of unusuals is, you expect lowball offers. It's outpost.
If offers are above current range, price can go up. This is not the same with suggestions going down.
Likewise, if B/O are below current range, that shows the price can go down. This is not the same with suggestions going up.
But because neither of those things are present here, we have to go on sales, not offers. If you find sales at lower, I'll upvote. If not, I'm staying neutral because these have an uncanny yet inaccurate way of sometimes getting accepted.
Right now I'm not seeing 4.9.
He's shown unsold buyouts under range. We can conservatively move it down.
I suppose. Also doesn't help that for some reason I think there's more than 1 of these on the market.
It's 1 of 1 AFAIK.
B/O on reddit is now 4.7 buds if that helps you make your decision.
http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2trade/comments/1fffak
thanks for that. Upvoted