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Overpay calculated where necessary.
Active Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13195496 - Apparent C/O of 6 buds but no proof. Offer of $250 (250/43.52= 5.7 buds)
Expired Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11436688 - Sold for GBH Hermes + Time Warp Snaggle (Using the Time Warp price for Hermes as GBH is unpriced [and they are similar effects and seemingly sell for similar prices] gives 2.7 + 3.4 = 6.1 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11877092 - Sold For Moon Luckyshot + 2 Portal Soundtrack Boxes + at least 4 keys (7.2 + 0.7 = ~7.9)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12228012 - Sold for Miami YWN (7.1 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/5702089 - Sold with a bud for a Scorching Milkman (5.6-1 = 4.6 buds) NB: Very old trade hence the seemingly low value. Milkman was worth about 8 buds at this time.
All recent sales fall within range.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13195496 - Apparent C/O of 6 buds but no proof. Offer of $250 (250/43.52= 5.7 buds)
buds are not $43, even though mathematically they should be $43 but they are not.
You can find buds EASY for $40, a lot of times cheaper.
The Offer Of $250 Should Be Considered As 6.25-6.5 Buds
bp.tf values buds as 43, so that's what I used. You'll find that a number of unusual prices are outdated too but it is still required that you use them instead of personal prices in suggestions.
Regardless, it's merely an offer and it wouldn't effect the range anyway.
In cases where a pure offer is made, I would use the common buds price for cash instead of bp.tf value. Not an issue here, but just for future reference. $40 is pretty safe, but I believe they are now trading at ~39
For reference: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/521841f7ba25366173000018