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4 weeks (not sold) b/o of 3 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13826137
6 days (not sold) [no noted offers] b/o of 3 buds: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14376147
so i think price must be lower as 2.5-2.9 buds
2.9 buds was the original price I believe, refined metal change made it the way it is now.
Also, buyouts alone are not sufficient as proof, you need solds to justify your lower price.
SOLD(bo of 2 buds) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13132358
SOLD(bo of 2 buds) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13550358
Firstly: Do some more research, as they could have sold for an unusual above 2 buds.
Secondly: This already disproves your range, as 2 buds is certainly lower than 2.5 buds.
first link has an offer of a cloud 9 whoopee (4.2 buds).