I made a mistake on the last suggestion for this. Added some more proof as well

ACTUAL SALES

4.5 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14685943 - terror watt cone (2) + blizz hoodie (1.4) + SF sticky - going by original price on the cone

4 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12953108 - max + buds + 16 keys

3.8 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12858680 - offered on electrostatic hoodie here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12840751 - sold for hoodie + 7.5 keys - http://backpack.tf/id/76561198025560677?time=1374303600

Another one sold for a stormy bonk, which, at 3 in value, seems like an outlier.

CURRENT TRADES

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14783475 - B/O 4.5