The hat is overvalued. Proof is in current sales and the sellers price.

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15126209

-Was asking 3 buds or slight overpay in unusuals

-Sold for dread knot orbiting planets and dragonborn stormy storm =3.1-3.7 bud

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15137086

-Asking 3.5 buds

-Many closed trades within the last week asking for quicksell of 3 buds.

-Sold for Blizzardy Storm Voodoo JuuJuu Slight Return-3.1-3.8 Buds

4/5 existing hats are currently on sale

1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14749777

-Asking 3.5 buds

-Two weeks old with a hearts geezer as an offer (1.9-2.5bud)

2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15140926

-Asking 3.3 buds

3) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15140583

-Asking 4 buds

-Has another closed trade a week old with the same hearts geezer as an offer (1.9-2.5bud)

4) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15051729

- Asking 3.9-4.1

-4 days open- no posts

4 bud sales are not going to happen with so many below the current suggested price. The first trader has been open for two weeks at 3.5 buds without success. The third trader has a closed trade 1 week old that was asking for 4.5 buds that was unsuccessful. The unusual trades that occurred fall within the proposed range. The other sales of 3.3 and 3.5 fall within the proposed range as well. The low end is based off the low end prices of the unusual sales and the 3 bud pure buyouts trades on outpost that existed in the history of the two sellers that sold their hats.