Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used.

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14725820

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198069877213?time=1380438000 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198069877213?time=1380610800

Blizz Chieftan + 8 keys = 1.9 buds

Side note: Took mid price of Chief since it was offered on

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14068935 - 1 bud + 10 keys = 1.6 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14695558 - 1 bud + 7 keys = 1.4 buds (outlier/quicksell)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14662481 - Eerie Gatsby, other guy added 8 keys = 1.7 buds

Side note: Took mid price since it was offered on

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14639913 - Blizz Hoodie + S. Degreaser w/ parts = 1.6 buds

Degreaser: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14643659

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14057210 - G. Companion, other guy added sweets. Not bothered looking into it since its most likely in my range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13968868 - Smoking Voodoo = 1.6 buds

Conclusion

Several sales within this range, vote accordingly.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3