Re-suggesting because of a revelation about the pricing of one of the trades.

This hat is definitely not worth 2.6-2.8. Trust me.

Using sales within the last two to four weeks.

Trade 1:

sold for 25 Dota 2 keys + 10 TF2 keys . The typical transfer rate of a Dota 2 key appears to be 1.1 : 1.

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17665096[/url]

The only offer in that trade is now in that person's backpack.

(1.1)(25)+10 = 1.9 buds

Trade 2:

Sold for a Australium Ambassador + 4 keys in sweets = 1.4 buds

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17348515[/url]

Outlier - The guy rode the hype wave and thought it was worth 2+. Oh well.

Verification: [url]http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn[/url]

Trade 3:

My trade. Sold for 2 buds pure.

Proof:

[url]http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#1[/url]

Trade 4:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17060857[/url]

1:1 a Bubbling Bubble Pipe for the Flies Bubble pipe. The Bubbling was offered on the Flies.

Price is out of date, but I have proof:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17500452[/url]

1 week ago a Bubbling bubble pipe sold for 3 copies of Dayz

Looking at these trades, Dayz appears to be traded between 11-14 keys in pure on the second-hand market:

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17688163[/url] Solds 11 pure

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17381131[/url] Solds 14 pure

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17686951[/url] Solds 12-13 pure

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17625561[/url] Solds 11 pure

All these trades are less than a week old, in the same timeframe of the trade for the bubbling bubble pipe.

Taking an average, multiplying by three, dividing by 1 earbud:

[(11+14)/(2)](3) /(19.5) = 1.92 buds = ~1.9 buds

Trade 5:

Sold for Cloud Nine Belgian detective. Un-priced. Not gonna count this

Proof:

[url]http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#2[/url]

Proof:

[url]http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#3[/url]

Trade 6:

2:1 a Cloudy Moon Lucky Shot + Massed Flies Bubble Pipe for a Harvest Moon Chieftain's Challenge.

Proof:

http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#6

Proof:

http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#5

Proof:

http://imgur.com/Dp67xh6,03Rr8YO,mymCXEl,skHDlol,vDOe59T,Fc637Tu,DCtrH0u,afaixZn#4

Not gonna touch this. Lucky Shot is out of date, and the Chieftain is most likely not accurate as well. Using BP.tf pricing puts the pipe barely over 1 bud.

In Conclusion:

This unusual is inconsistent AF, but pure trades happen around the 2 bud range. Two trades involve un-priced/ out of date hats, and the last involves an Australium weapon that the guy thought was worth more due to dat hype.

Valid trades appear to happen around ~2 in pure, and a bit more in unusual overpay.

This is my first time doing a pricing like this, so if anyone can suggest a better range then feel free to criticize.