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New effects continue to fall it seems....
Current trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17756431 B/O 8 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17634372 B/O 8 buds (claims is a QS, but has been open a week)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17618590 B/O 9 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17579392 B/O 10 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16571368 B/O 11 buds
All Sales I could find:
Aces high modest + 3 pure buds + some keys and sweets
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17219219
The aces modest is unpriced, but sold for a HOUWAR back in December:
Before: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198034603958?time=1388044800
After: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198034603958?time=1388217600
Clean Burning drill ~10.5 (1 month ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16028555
Burning Beak + bills ~13.3 (1 month ago)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16194404
Cloudy Tossle ~12 ( 1 month ago, old price)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15997610
Golden Pan for V. Bud + HOUWAR + Burning Beak + Miami Modest + 9 glitched circuit boards + hellfire cowl + 2 piles of robo keys (to many unknowns in this sale.)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17555511
So a month ago these were getting 10-13, but now 5 of 8 on the market are asking less than that. All the offers are either lowballs (like 5 buds pure) or new/robo effects which are too unstable (or unpriced) to use as solid evidence imo.
Second Buyout was selling for 9 buds. He changed it a few hours ago
Last sale is useless.
http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Troublemaker%27s%20Tossle%20Cap/Tradable/Craftable/38 - Tossle is ~10.6 after overpay and he also added the full set (+8 keys worth of items) - > sale is 11
http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Blighted%20Beak/Tradable/Craftable/13 - Beak is 11.7 after overpay - > sale is 12
http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Sergeant%27s%20Drill%20Hat/Tradable/Craftable/13 - Drill's is ~10.9
Aces modest sale -> not so useful
Now for sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17756431 - 8 buds, has a willing pure payer
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17634372 - "quickselling" for the same amount, no interest
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17888429 - 9 buds B/O, very recent
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17579392 - 10 buds B/O, no offers exceeding 8
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16571368 - 11 ->definetely not gonna happen, unsold for 2 months
er, idk what sort of specific range would go in, but this suggestion is def wrong
The price range is based on the current b/os.
The sales were put there simply to show that I found sales but they are all older and it's clear that by the current B/Os the price is falling.
1. 10.6 for the tossel is from a closed suggestion, not an accepted one.
2. 6 days ago the beak was changed based on pure sales of 13
3. I generally use the low value as the pure since it's usually very close to the calculation. I also like to round to .5 bud increments on more expensive stuff. I have also owned and sold clean burning drills and I know ppl will pay 10.5 pure for them.
had a offer of HOUWAR on my last trade was late to accept that my fault of course still if that helps
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17446773
Honestly, 11 is generous here with so many b/o's under the range. I don't have a problem with the wider range. Sales / offers on new effect hats are still all over the place. But with two available at 8 in pure and the one at 9, I don't have a problem with a range of 8-11. The wider range surely captures its value. Going with the strong community vote here.