Proof below. 4 month-old price.

Sales:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17706019

-sold for miami hwnn=outlier, hats price is way too high now with people wanting 4-5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17434957

-sold for 3 buds+15 keys=~3.8 buds

-buyer's bp:

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198080783258?time=1390377600

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198080783258?time=1390464000

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17205985

-b/o of 4.5 buds

-bought scorching blokes: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17114198

-~2.9 buds, clear outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16154180

-2 o.f. veils sold for duped burning phantom

-phantom:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17810887

-wanted 8.5 buds

-sold for beams hwah (outdated)+smoking phantom (slightly outdated)+peace cowl+blizz pe (outdated)+sweets=~9.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17500783

-sold for pe phantom+logo phantom+sf amby w/ parts=~8.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15626295

-sold for ge phantom+searing phantom (outdated)+12 keys+sweets: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15573555 also according to ge phantom suggestion=~9.2 buds

-~4 buds each

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16189466

-wanted ~4.6 buds

-sold for 3 buds+32 keys=~4.6 buds due to price but still outlier

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17558058

-sold for c9 billy+smoking chapeau=~3.9 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17428336

-b/o of 4 buds

-seems to have sold for pe lucky (year old price): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17441854

-~4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17148691

-b/o of 4.5 buds

-sold for disco salty (outdated)=~4.3 buds, outdated so can't use especially as new effects drop a lot

Current trades:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16047268

-wants ~5.1 buds, few months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17830758

-wants ~4 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17600272

-not for sale on its own

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17226328

-b/o of 4.5 buds, 1 month

Sales: 2.9, 3.8, 3.9, 4, 4, 4.3, 4.6

Using the valid sales it comes to 3.8-4. Sales above or below are obvious outliers or invalid so yeah.