Blizzardy Storm Détective Noir (1.1-1.3 buds) | (last updated 3 months ago)

Last priced at 1-1.4 buds

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Trade #1: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20391851

The buyer offered a bud on the trade, and later thanks the owner for the Noir, however, the same buyer on this trade also offered 1 bud and 2 keys to another owner here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20364237 just 2 days beforehand. Therefore, there is a chance that he paid more than a bud to the person he bought it from.

It is not possible to determine since the buyer's backpack has a 9 day gap in time between before and after the unusual was traded: [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198103277117[/url]. June 17th the unusual is in the backpack, and on June 8th, the next prior cache, it is not, but the backpack did not stay static enough to discern the contents of the trade.

It is also not possible to discern the trade from the sellers backpack as well:

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074193832?time=1402988400 (June 17th)

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074193832?time=1403074800 (June 18th)

The noticable changes making it near impossible to analyze the trade:

Before: Peace Kabuto, Blizzardy Noir, Genuine Doublecross-Comm, TS Bill's Hat, 18 keys

After: Nuts Pyromancers, Australium Knife, Collector's Cloak and Dagger, Genuine Ap-Sap, Strange Blood Banker, Taunt: Rancho Relaxo, Strange Festive Ambassador, 0 keys

Conclusion: Since its unclear whether buyer paid a bud or a little over, I am giving some leeway, and counting the sale as 1.1 buds since it is unclear the exact amount paid.

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Trade #2: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20364237

Unclear what is sold for, trade was opened and closed same day, June 15th.

Buyer's backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107929915?time=1403161200 (June 19th) - Orb. Planets Noir seen

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107929915?time=1403420400 (June 22nd) - Blizzardy Noir seen

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198107929915?time=1403506800 (June 23rd) - both Blizzardy and Orb. Planets Noir seen

Seller's backpack:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045001812

- could not locate a single time the Blizzardy Noir was ever seen in the backpack in regards to the time around when trade was listed to when it first appeared in the buyer's backpack. Therefore, the most plausible explanation is the hat was sold on the Steam Community Market for an unknown amount.

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Trade #3: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20348800

Sold with the Smoking Trilby for an Orb. Fire Yellow Belt: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20362013[/url]. I am not going to extrapolate the value of the Noir from this trade since this is a trade more suitable to price the Yellow Belt based on who offered.

However, there was an offer by Zam for 1 bud, festive medi gun (1.7-1.8 keys at time of offer) and TS Vintage Prussian Pickelhaube (cheapest on Outpost has gone unsold at 6 refined for a week: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20428953[/url]) which brings the total value of the trade to 1 bud and ~2 keys converted to roughly 1.1 buds.

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Trade #4: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20158336

Sold for http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20242101 Blizzardy Storm Mullet (16-17 keys), Gold Genuine Double Cross-Comm and Gold Sneaky Spats of Sneaking. Since it is not clear who offered on who's unusual, I am not going to use overpay. Its 16 keys for Mullet and 3.5 keys for Genuine Double Cross-Comm, and the added paint along with the Spats make up roughly 0.5 keys more rounding the total to 20 keys.

Buds were 16.5-17 keys at the time and leaning more to 16.5 keys: http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Earbuds/Tradable/Craftable so the value of the trade is about ~1.15 buds

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Trade #5: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21103649

Sold for http://i.imgur.com/WMBkjPu.png

- Australium Ambassador (1-1.2 buds)

- Strange Knife signed by stabby_stabby (~4 keys)*

- White Fancy Fedora (~1 key | half paint value)

- Specialized Killstreak Winger (~1 key)*

- Festive Stickybomb Launcher (1 key)

- Taunt: I See You (2-2.22 refined)

- Strange Grenade Launcher (2 refined)

- Quäckenbirdt (1.33 refined)

- 1.33 refined

Total Value: 6.66 refined / 8.55 refined per key + 1 key + 1 key + 1 key + 4 keys + 1 bud = 1 bud and ~7.75 keys converted to ~1.4 buds

- However, my buyout was 1 bud and a Bill's Hat which is roughly 1.3 buds, and therefore must be counted as such since the point of overpay is to overpay a set buyout which is the price that should be used in the event that it occurs.

*Knife - I asked how much the knife would be worth to some friends, and one of them offered to pay 4 keys which I accepted: [url]http://i.imgur.com/r9HPM9y.png[/url]. Cheapest one I could find on Outpost is looking for 4-5 keys: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21087869[/url]. Also stabby_stabby had a different name when I was trading the knife, so I am providing the knife's outpost history so that you can click on who gifted it to trace it to stabby, http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2764946884,194,11

*Winger - current Steam Community Market value is roughly 1 key based on backpack.tf's price lists: http://i.imgur.com/yNwr3qF.png

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Conclusion: 3 sales at roughly 1.1 buds and the most recent at around 1.3 buds in item overpay. I had the only Blizzardy Noir on the market which was up for only a day, so there is a chance I could have gotten more had I changed my buyout and waited for more offers to come in.