Oooh, community, that's me!

Deciding an outlier is going to necessarily be a matter of personal opinion, since I doubt either of these are getting put on the market soon.

As a suggester, given two sales I've always leaned towards the higher one not being the outlier, purely because vastly overpaying is a much rarer occurrence than vastly underpaying.

Ironically I feel an average of the two sale values (~55) is probably the nearest estimate of the actual value, but a range of 30-80 would be, pointless, insane.

So, eh, why the heck not. I'm behind this.

In my opinion, it is best to wait at least a month before pricing this again. 2 burning hood exists, and the other one isn't tradable yet. Based on what the owner of the untradable one wrote on his steam profile, it looks like we might possibly be seeing another sale soon:

http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198065544498 - ...But the hood im not trading it just yet. Still make a offer. But im not selling it for less then 50buds.

If we wait for a month before pricing this, we might have more sales to work with and determine the outliers. There's no harm in waiting, as this can then be priced at 80 buds should no other sales take place within that period of time.

Well, I would call this an outlier.

If you take a look at the Purple Energy Pyromancer's Hood, then you'll see it gets around 11.5 Buds, other hats with same effects which reaches about the same are:

Anger = 11.5 Buds outdated

Bubble Pipe = 11.6 Buds outdated

Blighted Beak = 12 Buds

Company Man = 10 Buds outdated

Brainiac Hairpiece = 13 Buds

Pyromancer's Mask = 13 Buds

Modest Pile of Hat = 13 Buds outdated

So, if you take a look at their Burning variants:

Anger = 28 Buds outdated

Bubble Pipe = 50 Buds outdated

Blighted Beak = 15.5 Buds, it's important to note here that the Beak is a misc, and 30 Burning ones exist making it less rare.

Company Man = 17.5 Buds outdated, it's important to note that it is all class, and 9 exist

Brainiac Hairpieace = 60 Buds outdated, important to note that this is a very high tier misc

Pyromancer's Mask = 24.5 Buds outdated, note that this is a misc, it's for Pyro making it obviousy to compare to the Hood

Modest Pile of Hat = 21 Buds, not that this is an all class hat

Can't just compare with one effect only, therefore I will do it again with Blizzardy Storm:

The Hood itself is about 5 Buds, other hats with same effect are in same price range are:

Executioner = 4.9 Buds outdated

Villain's Veil = 4.4 Buds

Pyromancers Mask = 5 Buds

The Burning Variants of theese hats have price ranges about theese:

Executioner = 70 Buds outdated, note this is an all class hat

Villain's Veil = 40 Buds outdated, note that this is a very high tier misc

Pyromancer's Mask = 24.5 Buds outdated, agian, pyro misc, makes it very obvious to compare to the hood

I'll do this a third and last time, this will be with the Green Confetti effect:

The Hood itself is 7 Buds, only the Bronw Bomber is close enough to it, some others would be stupid to compare with (the Team Captain), and other don't have a Burning one.

The Burning Brown Bomber is 55 Buds outdated.

So, the Purple Energy hats around 11.5 Buds have Burning variants which make an average of 31 Buds, on the comparison with Blizzardy Storm it's 45 Buds and in the Green Confetti comparison it's 55 Buds.

(31 + 45 + 55) / 3 = 43.33333

*This is a very rough estimation, not to be taken accurately

I call it an outlier, if you compare other hats with this one which have same price in some effects, you will get an average almost half of this suggested price. I think waiting for another sale is the best soloution for this.

Yeah, it looked like that but I wasn't entirely sure since in the linked trade he just said he bought the Hood with it.