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The one, the only, Frostbite Bootleg Base Metal Billycock.
The frostbite base billy:
http://backpack.tf/item/3280196026
---
Grand total of two sales, both usable (!)
Sale #1: 1.4 buds (rounding from 1.35)
Sale link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24629464
Sale details: Sold 1/14-1/15, was offered on the molten mallard, and confirmed by the seller as a 1:1 here: http://i.imgur.com/CBlkoAI.png
Buyer:
★D∆rⓚnight™★
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1421308800
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1421222400
Seller:
~INKT~ Jack the kawaii Wolfy
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120376719?time=1421222400
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198120376719?time=1421308800
Very straightforward. I wanted to double check that the Bill's hat was part of a different trade, since it appeared in the seller's backpack at the same time. The sale was noted during pricing the molten mallard base billy, but wasn't used for the price since it was literally the first recorded sale of the frostbite base billy. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54c4e3f1b88d8800028b6093
Sale #2, 2.0 buds (rounding from 2.04)
Sale link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/24679580
Sale details: Sold 2/17-2/18 for Australium Grenade + 2 keys, 2.25 pre-over[pay
Pricing math: 90% of 25 keys/12 keys per bud (aussie/buds price at the time of sale) + 2 keys/12 keys per bud
Given that two keys left the buyer's backpack, and at least one definitely went to the hat seller ( http://backpack.tf/item/2564201410 ), it is most likely that they were both added. This would be 2.25 buds, and also agrees with the seller's stated sale price of 2.3 buds in items. The professional minigun fabricator that disappeared from the buyer's backpack does not appear to be part of the deal, and was probably just put on market, since it showed up in their backpack again a week later: http://backpack.tf/item/3525675122
Buyer:
PEACE!!, much easier to see what happened here
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1424160000
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1424246400
Seller:
★D∆rⓚnight™★
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1424160000
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198115179017?time=1424246400
Currently listed by PEACE:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25115025
Buyout of 2.5, two decent offers so far. The robonoble is nearly out of date, but looks like it's still reasonably accurate, and the offer is about 1.9 in total items.
Anyway, looks pretty solid to me. Anything I missed?
UPDATE: Not quite as solid, but still possibly?
The billycock has sold again twice, both apparently pretty quick.
Sale #3: ?????, quicksell?
Sold 3/4-3/5, immediately before or after I posted suggestion
Seller, PEACE:
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1425456000
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074883813?time=1425542400
Buyer (probably), ™폐인:트…√ :
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425628800
It may have been quicksold for eight keys, using the suggestion value to leverage? Hard to tell with any certainty. PEACE may also have immediately put other items from the trade on market, as they did with the pro minigun kit. Most keys are from two people, and while the buyer's backpack wasn't indexed between those times, they're likely to reflect keys that a single source got through two separate trades, then used for this one.
Sale #4: ~1.1-1.2 buds after overpay? Another quicksell, had it for at most a day.
14 keys in items, plus or minus a key
Genuine Professional Killstreak Sharp Dresser (Incinerator/Hot Rod, 8 keys, see mini), G. Dashin' Hashshashin (3 keys), G. Distinguished Rogue (1.33), Strange Festive Black Box (2.95 keys)
Mini, G. Pro Sharp Dresser: 8 keys
Listings reflect buyouts of 8-13 keys http://www.trade.tf/listings/search/Sell/Genuine/Sharp%20Dresser/all/Professional%20Killstreak/1
Market sales are typically $18-22, corresponding to 6.5-10.5 keys (buying keys with proceeds of low value through keys sold to purchase high value), reasonably supports buyouts.
Reasonably conservative estimate, I had one a couple months ago I believe, and ended up selling for somewhere around there.
Seller, ™폐인:트…√ :
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425628800
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198150699116?time=1425715200
Buyer, jegalgonmye(대리):
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1425715200
Again, buyer's backpack isn't indexed, but the seller's backpack is much clearer this time.
TL;DR- Two quick sales, one (probably) well below this and one in the general neighborhood.
Any suggestions for how to handle these?
No further sales to date.
More notes on Sale #4:
Keys may have been involved in the fourth sale. Six left the current owner's backpack that could pretty easily have been involved in the purchase, and there is very few other items added to the backpack that would indicate other purchases. The blizzardy Mullet ( http://backpack.tf/item/885589228 ) was already owned by jegalonmye ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1423641600 ), and appears to have just been returned to their backpack. May have been borrowed, put on market, or both during that time.
The white Graybanns were also involved http://backpack.tf/item/3011982164 , pushing the value up to about 15 keys by list price (though of course that's iffy, since paint). If all the keys that left the current owner's backpack went to the seller, that would indicate a price of 1.7 buds even after overpay.
Current status, one never-bumped listing by the final buyer:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25302457
Long story short, there are still the two solid sales I've based the range on, one apparent quicksale, and one very unclear sale that still appears to be somewhere in the range I estimated in the initial suggestion. Looks like it works to me, any counter-suggestions?
Sale #5: 1.1ish
Stormy Storm Crocleather Slouch (1.2-1.3, outdated) + 0.5 key in hats
(Buyer backpack unhelpful)
Seller:
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1426230000
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198136817995?time=1426316400
See mini, goddamnit.
Sale #6: 1.44 buds
Bubbling Cyborg Stunt (11 keys, outdated) + S. Ullapool (~4.4 keys) + 2 keys
Buyer:
Pre: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426230000
Post: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198134466006?time=1426316400
(Seller backpack unhelpful)
Another mini. Why did I decide to price this fucking hat.
Two more sales, both for outdated hats. Unfortunately, it's doing the rounds in Japanese-language servers, looks like, which makes it very hard to get verification outside backpack. The Aussie grenade remains the cleanest sale, but is now looking like an outlier. I will most likely need to do minis on those both, and resuggest at 1.1-1.4.