More sales = more accurate range. Also fixed some issues with the mini in sale one, as well as some overpay issues. Suggestion #4, here we go.

Here is my proof:

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Sale 1

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk traded 1:1 for a Strange Purple Energy Sole Mate (16.4 Buds).

Total = 16.4 Buds * .9(Overpay) = 14.76 Buds, rounded to 14.8 Buds.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059841653?time=1426143600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059841653?time=1426230000

Mini Information:

Seller After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094714199?time=1425715200

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Sale 2

(Outlier)

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk sold 1:1 for a Disco Beat Down Brotherhood of Arms (~11 Buds)

Total = 11 * .9 (Overpay) = 9.9 Buds.

Buyer Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163?time=1423987200

Buyer After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163?time=1424073600

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Sale 3

(Outlier)

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk sold for a Spellbound Killer's Kabuto (14 Buds) + a SBTWC Handyman's Handle (2.3 Buds) + S.F. Pro. KS Axtinguisher (~4 Keys) + S.F. Flame Thrower (10 Keys) + S.F. Pro KS Flare Gun (~10 Keys) + Pro. KS Australium Ambassador (~2 Buds)

Total = (14 Buds) + (2.3 Buds) + (.33 Buds) + (.83 Buds) + (.83 Buds) = 20.3 Buds * .9 (Overpay) = 18.46 Buds, Rounded up to 18.5 Buds.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163?time=1423296000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198071647163?time=1423468800

Mini Information:

This is fitting, as there is currently a Pro KS S.F. Flare Gun available via classifieds for 10 pure keys.

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Sale 4

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk was traded 1:1 with a Scorching Master's Yellow Belt.

Total = 14.8 Buds (No overpay added because hat was not offered for the Belt.)

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062565400?time=1421913600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198062565400?time=1422000000

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Sale 5

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk was traded 1:1 with a Frostbite Spook Specs (16.75 Buds)

Total = 16.75 Buds * .9 (Overpay) = 15.075 Buds, Rounded to 15 Buds.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089843624?time=1421913600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089843624?time=1422086400

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Let it Scoot

A few other sales were investigated and considered, but they were very far outliers, so I did not provide their data.

Once again, if an error has been made in my calculations, kindly let me know and I can fix and resubmit the price suggestion. Thanks a ton you guys!

New sale to report:

Miami Nights Merc's Mohawk sold for a Circling Heart German Gonzila (4.5 Buds), a Massed Flies Le Party Phantom (2.5 Buds), a P. Fetti Larrikin Robin (1.5 Buds), and a Cloud 9 Hermes (3.25 Buds).

Total: (4.5 + 2.5 + 1.5 + 3.25) * .9 = 10.57 Buds, rounded to 10.6 Buds.

Sale qualifies as a low outlier.

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070697329?time=1426230000

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070697329?time=1426316400

Since sale is an outlier, no change to the range needs to be made. Some of these hats may also be outdated, but since the sale is so much lower than the given range, I did not bother to check.