Suggestion: Burning Flames Old Man Frost at 218.5 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25205177 --- Shows Bob sold it for Scorching Danger + Overclocked TC (With a look at the recent Danger sales/listings, this sale seems to be an Outlier)

Bob wanted 100 on Danger, current guy wants "a little less than that"

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25165674 --- Bob's Trade

Proof: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116958455?time=1426143600 (Backpack of Seller of other Frost, has TC and Danger)

Bobs one was also strange.

I bought the other Burning Old Man Frost with Ghastly Jr TC+~3 keys worth of sweet. I do not think overpay is necessary since the previous owner contacted me directly and offered me the Old Man on my TC. He wanted me to add a Max, but I wasn't entirely sure about the value of the old man and declined in adding a max and managed to go 1:1. http://imgur.com/bE04vRJ <- evidence

Also I feel Scorching Danger+Overclocked TC (7) is not an outlier. Half of what Bob sells has B/O greater than 100 buds, so it won't really count, but I know the guy who sold his Burning Old Man to Bob has traded Scorching Danger with Orbiting Fire Noh Mercy (25). Combined it should be about 32, which is not an outlier compared to the Ghatly Jr TC sale.

Your sweets were 13.44 Refined -> 14.22 Refined (Less than a Key, irrelevant here)

Edit: The most recent Sale of this hat (SinarcH to Gus) was for only the Noh. (Outdated) 25 * 0.9 = 22.5 (23)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116958455?time=1426575600

Scorching Danger is 1 of 1 in TF2, so the most recent sale of this hat will dictate its price.

Also there are only 2 OF Nohs in TF2, and there are two recent sales. 1:1 with Scorching Danger, and 1:1 with Vivid KE. This suggestion was closed due to Vivid KE's suggestion being closed, so I'm sure mini for the Noh should be higher than 25.

And also if there are 2 Burning Old Man Frost with only two sales, how can you call any of the two trades an outlier? With this logic my purchase of this hat with Ghastly TC can also be an outlier.

Looking at the comments, 33 - 38 (for KE, 35.5) was better.

35.5 * 0.9 = ~32

So. If Danger sold for Noh, 32 * 0.9 = ~29 + TC (7 * 0.9 = 6.3) = ~35

While it is Strange, it's worth less. But 23 - 35 is an ugly range.

THAT BEING SAID. The sale for the Noh took 1 Month + 11 Days to sell.

The 23 sale sold in <1 week

23 was easier than 35, using 23

also if you look at the suggestion of ghastly TC, the two sales that made up its current price all involved hats with overpay. If you apply overpay here again, then this is double overpay, Read the rules again: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-guide-for-unusual-price-suggestions/.

and just because you think the range 23~35 is ugly doesn't give you a right to choose the lower end.

The issue of double overpay

If you make suggestions long enough, you come across the situation where you have to make a mini for an outdated hat. Do you apply overpay in the mini and then again on the main suggestion? Doing so stacks overpay twice, so if all hats were traded 1:1, your final evaluation comes out to 81% of the original hat's value. What if you have to do a mini for the mini - now you get overpay stacked 3 times. And if all hats were traded 1:1, your final evaluation comes to 72% of the original value. This isn't right, and it doesn't capture the meaning of overpay. GENERALLY (though not always), it is best to apply overpay ONCE. When you apply it once, you are calculating the pure value of an item. Applying overpay again would be the equivalent of applying overpay on pure. This is not a black-and-white rule. I encourage you to use YOUR judgment. If after applying overpay on ANY item, you find that the value doesn't seem right, please use common sense and experience to guide your decision making about what is a more reasonable evaluation of the pure value of the items involved (i.e. if after double overpay, a hat is being evaluated at 13 pure when it gets offered 14 pure and sells in a day at 14 pure, you shouldn't take it less than 14)

23 is relatively close to 25, therefore I can use 23

Edit: To reach 25 Buds, he calculated overpay from a total of ~28

82% of 28 is 23

23 is closer to 28 than 35 is (Supports using 35)

Also, while 3 Months ago, one of the TC's was offered ~24.45 in Unusuals (Flam + Thirst) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23764248

Ghastly TC Price: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54efc50db98d8817328b4c99

This is 25 buds because there were total of 3 sales listed there, and the lowest one is an outlier, so 25 is an average of 28.1 and 22 buds. Note that average of 28 buds and 22 is 25. So both of the sales already has overpay applied (90%), so why are you still taking overpay on the TC? Especially when the seller of Old Man added me and offered on my TC and I didn't require overpay. Does that mean if I do 1:1 with some other 1 of 1 hat in game, then the overpay will be applied again? eventually if this continues, this hat will reach close to 0 buds. Ideally you should take the average of 25 and 35

Fair enough, I hadn't known that you were offered on. I'll resuggest at 25 - 35