"What is between eighteen and twenty-six? well NOT THIS HAT! To the countermobile!"

[credits (I guess) to endü]

The sales:

Sale 1:

Sold + strange boombringer (0.7) + S.spec ks black box (2) for spec ks aussie black box (21)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085927205?time=1429167600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198085927205?time=1429340400 after

0.9*(21-2-0.7) = ~16.4, rounding to 16

-> 16 keys

Sale 2:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25714151

Qsed for 2buds (10.5)+3keys

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145940774?time=1429167600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198145940774?time=1429267954 after

0.9*10.5 +3 = 12.45, rounding to 12

-> 12 keys QS

Sale 3:

Sold + aces norman (~14) for a max (27) (likely a QS, happened within a day)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133207902?time=1429101508 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133207902?time=1429167600 after

Norman is outdated at ~22, but the current owner is selling for 14. taking that

27-14= 13

-> 13 keys QS

Sale 4:

Sold for steaming pith helmet (~15)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993374559?time=1428303600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993374559?time=1428994800 after

0.9*15 = 13.5, rounding to 14.

-> 14 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for c9 jeepcap (21):

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025329724?time=1425266513 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198025329724?time=1425283200 after

21*0.9 = 19.1

-> 19 keys OUTLIER

Sale 6:

Sold + duped gifted Pfetti mullet (8.5) for orbfire barnstormer (22)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133617084?time=1424332800 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198133617084?time=1424472719 after

22*0.9 - 8.5 = 11.3, rounding to 11

-> 11 keys OUTLIER

The minis:

Mini non-aussie black box:

http://imgur.com/arWmsKV averagely sells ~4€ = ~1.8 keys, rounding to 2

Taking 2

Mini aussie black box:

http://imgur.com/VOjnUHp averagely sells ~48€, -> ~21 keys

Taking 21

Mini jeepcap:

Sold for spec ks aussie black box (21)such coincidence

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097976292?time=1428476400 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198097976292?time=1428682142 after

Taking 21

Mini duped/gifted fetti mullet:

sold for 7 pure + festive medi (1)+ vintage stash (0.7)

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074450046?time=1424505600 before

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074450046?time=1424665573 after

7+0.9*1.7 = ~8.5

Taking 8.5

Sales at:

Outliers and why:

12 sold without a bump. 13 happened within a day. This makes 11 a logical outlier.

Despite not being a solid support for an actual range, the quicksales do indicate the drop is needed, and that 19 is likely too high. Excluding 19 as well.

Final range: 14-16

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy