Price Suggestion
Disco Beat Down Modest Pile of Hat
Submitted by oblivion
67.9%
46 keys
46–73 keys
20
~36 keys
dbd
Unusual Modest Pile of Hat Disco Beat Down
110 votes up
52 votes down
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Comments

Ok I just did this thing but I figured out another sale (SCM) and I have been informed that I can use offers to set the high-end of a range (double checked with Polar.)


Sale 1

Sold for frostbite towering titanium pillar of hats (41-54), 1 key and ~3 keys in sweets = 1 + (47.5 + 3)* 0.9 = 46 keys


Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976353061?time=1426316400 (March 14th)

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976353061?time=1426402800 (March 15th)


Sale 2

Sold on the steam community market for $123.40

Buyers bp: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123739261 - modest is tradeable after sat 25th, so bought on sat 18th

http://i.imgur.com/TC6ShlT.png


One sale of unusual modest on the scm on sat 18th:

http://i.imgur.com/Tf9T9Lz.png


Buyer pays $123.40

Seller receives $104.89

Scm key price ~2.30

123.40/2.30 = 54 keys

104.89/2.30 = 47 keys

Range = 47-54 keys


____________________________________________________________________________________


The offers. Doing proper minis for them seeing as I'm using them for pricing not just support.


Offer 1

http://oi59.tinypic.com/4uc1vl.jpg - offered duped dbd sola topi (8), haunted ghosts metal billycock (35), strange pro frying pan (13-15) and strange grenade launcher (negligible) = (8 + 35 + 14) = 51 keys


Offer 2

http://i62.tinypic.com/302ue6o.jpg - offered cloud 9 modest (75-88) = 81.5 * 0.9 = 73 keys - trade declined


Offer 3

http://i58.tinypic.com/k9ulb9.jpg - offered terror-watt brown bomber (60-72) = 66 * 0.9 = 59 keys - support proof


Offer 4

http://i61.tinypic.com/2hi5f6p.jpg - offered dead presidents team captain (78-83) + 5 keys = (80.5 * 0.9) + 5 = 77 keys - not using this to set range as it was cancelled, but still useful as support of the high end being valid


Mini for duped dbd sola topi:

Sold for aussie tomislav (9) = 8 keys


http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153449337?time=1424851200 (February 25th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153449337?time=1424937600 (February 26th)


Mini for strange pro frying pan:

Average buyer pays ~$35

Average seller receives ~$29.75

Scm key price ~$2.30

35/2.30 = 15 keys

29.75/2.30 = 13 keys

Range = 13-15 keys


____________________________________________________________


Ok, so... both sales are around 50, but the offers shown above suggest that a range may be useful here as it can obviously sell for more. I don't believe the higher offers discount the sales though, as there are two around the same value (both the only recent/valid sales) plus there are offers around there too. I have asked Polar and he said I can set a high end with offers if they're clear/proven, so hopefully this is ok. If this isn't strong enough proof that's ok, I was sent proof of the offers so I feel this is a more accurate range, but if sales or stronger offer proof is needed this can just be re-evaluated when there are more sales. Feedback welcome.


Ty to Zer - Friskydingo for all the screenshots

Avatar oblivion · posted

are you using an offer as the high range? if so, you can't do that

Avatar ★ Jasensational · posted

    Did you read anything I wrote? I specifically asked polar and he said I can do that

    Avatar oblivion · posted
      Avatar ★ bren · deleted by the submitter

        Yes, you can set the high range using an offer, but the one you used is inaccurate/outdated, considering there is a seller for 50 keys for close to a month with no luck: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25543711 | http://backpack.tf/item/2646405739 (it's on SCM at the moment)

        Avatar ★ bren · posted

          Price is in date so I used current price... if you think the c9 modest needs updating, why don't you update it? :P

          Avatar oblivion · posted

            It is infact still within 3 months, but that price was before the bud-to-key inflation/conversion.

            The Cloud 9 Modest does need updating, but it isn't up to me to update it just so you can use it for this suggestion.

            Avatar ★ bren · posted

              As far as I know, there is no current rule asking people to do minis on every hat not priced within the last month or so... 3 months is still the cut off.


              I also showed support proof of another offer at a similar price. I think this is an accurate range for this hat. If I'm wrong that's ok, this suggestion will be closed. But it seems like you're picking at it because I'm using offers rather than because of the price itself? If he had accepted that c9 modest offer I don't think you'd be saying I needed a mini for the sale?

              Avatar oblivion · posted

                If you think I am just 'picking at it because you are using offers rather than actual sales', I'm not. Even if he accepted the Cloud 9 Modest offer, valuing it at ~73 keys after overpay is just insane; I would've still brought up the unsuccessful 50 key seller.


                Take this for example: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/54239b4cba8d8897688b47d0. The price of the Purple Energy El Jefe was still within 3 months of that suggestion, but there were B/O's and sales to prove that even if the El Jefe wasn't outdated, 10 buds was still too high and did not reflect its realistic value.

                Avatar ★ bren · posted

                  I have not checked recent BOs on any in-date hats I have used in any of my suggestions (maybe I should start lol), and nobody has complained thus far, so either I've got super lucky or yes I do think offers have something to do with it. Apologies if I'm wrong. I'll have a look through the recent sales for the c9 modest in a bit, see what I can find. 3 weeks unsold isn't a huge amount of time for a 50 key purchase, but I could be wrong.


                  Not sure how the dp team captain fits in, as that is up to date also and I only discounted it from the range because the offer was cancelled before he got around to declining it.


                  Edit: Tbh, I don't really have a stake in this, I just want an accurate price. I'm presenting the information I have. If mods decide it's not strong enough they can close it, don't need to argue about it.

                  Avatar oblivion · posted

                    In no way was this supposed to be an argument, I just wanted to raise my thoughts of this suggestion.

                    Anyways, I'll be heading out now and best of luck finding other recent sales! :)

                    Avatar ★ bren · posted

                      Thanks for being polite/friendly in your objections, I know many aren't. :)

                      Avatar oblivion · posted

      Up-voted, the 46 flat value was very inaccurate, and this range reflects multiple offers I've received in just the last month. Teeny Tiny Cat spent a lot of his time working with me in hopes of coming up with a more accurate range, and this is it.

      Avatar ★ Zer_Friskydingo · posted

        Don't hold your breath, I'm look at the c9 modest and if it comes out lower I might have to close this afterall.

        Avatar oblivion · posted

          It's also important to note that these offers were not accepted because they were too low. These are offers that were not high enough for me to accept them on the spot. Even in the case of the DP Team Captain, the offer was left in pending for at least a whole day before being canceled. It would be different if there were other dbd modest sellers in the 46 key range, but there's a reason there isn't. Also regarding the 46 key range to begin with 1.) The trade for the frostbite tower was made before the FB tower was even priced. 2.) SCM prices are pretty unreliable, for instance I've seen a DBD viewfinder sell for $350 back when it was worth over 300 keys. 3.) The previous suggestion listed my personal listing for a BO of 65 keys; this listing was outdated (made same time as when buds were discontinued), and was left unattended (as in I physically was not active for weeks, not to be mistaken with being unsold).

          Avatar ★ Zer_Friskydingo · posted

            What you'll accept doesn't really matter in pricing, it's what people are willing to pay.

            Avatar oblivion · posted

              Certainly, which is why I'm happier with this range, as it reflects what others have been willing to actually send in a trade offer (which imo is even more concrete than say a 'text offer' usually seen in outpost threads)

              Avatar ★ Zer_Friskydingo · posted

                Yeah. I'm not sure on the c9 modest to be honest, found multiple sales at it's current value but multiple below. Gonna wait on feedback from mods and/or more experienced suggestors.

                Avatar oblivion · posted

        I bought my DBD modest with Circling Peace Sign Federal Casemaker + a Strange prof frying pan


        Before

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057954051?time=1430636400

        After

        http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057954051?time=1430722800


        SCM for Strange prof frying pan is about 40 dollars

        40 / 2.5 = 16 keys

        Federal Casemaker is about 36-40 keys


        He was asking 60 keys


        Not sure if i apply overpay


        I also have every intention of keeping it, unless a good offer comes around

        Avatar ★ A Modest Espeon · posted