Redoing this again cause there were a few more sales.

Sale 1

Sold for frostbite towering titanium pillar of hats (41-54), 1 key and ~3 keys in sweets = 1 + (47.5 + 3)* 0.9 = 46 keys

Buyer before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976353061?time=1426316400 (March 14th)

Buyer after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197976353061?time=1426402800 (March 15th)

Sale 2

Sold on the steam community market for $123.40

Buyers bp: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123739261 - modest is tradeable after sat 25th, so bought on sat 18th

http://i.imgur.com/TC6ShlT.png

One sale of unusual modest on the scm on sat 18th:

http://i.imgur.com/Tf9T9Lz.png

Buyer pays $123.40

Seller receives $104.89

Scm key price ~2.30

123.40/2.30 = 54 keys

104.89/2.30 = 47 keys

Range = 47-54 keys

Sale 3

Sold for duped peace sign modest (33) = 33 * 0.9 = 30 keys - quicksell/outlier, based on offers

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963980979?time=1429945200 (April 25th)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197963980979?time=1430031600 (April 26th)

Sale 4

Sold for strange pro aussie scattergun (41-48) = 40 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090869916?time=1430463600 (May 1st)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198090869916?time=1430550000 (May 2nd)

Sale 5

Sold for peace sign federal casemaker (36-40) and strange pro frying pan (13-15) = (38 + 14) * 0.9 = 47 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098410618?time=1430636400 (May 3rd)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198098410618?time=1430722800 (May 4th)

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Minis

Mini on duped peace sign modest:

Sold for stormy modest (27-35) and ~1.5 key sweets = 32.5 = 33 keys

Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165458749?time=1429686000 (April 22nd)

Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198165458749?time=1429858800 (April 24th)

Mini on pro aussie scatter:

Average buyer pays ~$115

Average seller receives ~$97.75

Scm key price ~$2.40

115/2.40 = 48 keys

97.75/2.40 = 41 keys

Range = 41-48 keys

Mini for strange pro frying pan:

Average buyer pays ~$37

Average seller receives ~$31.45

Scm key price ~$2.40

37/2.40 = 15 keys

31.45/2.40 = 13 keys

Range = 13-15 keys

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Offers

Offer 1

http://oi59.tinypic.com/4uc1vl.jpg - offered duped dbd sola topi (8), haunted ghosts metal billycock (35), strange pro frying pan (13-15) and strange grenade launcher (negligible) = (8 + 35 + 14) = 51 keys

Offer 2

http://i62.tinypic.com/302ue6o.jpg - offered cloud 9 modest (50) = 50 * 0.9 = 45 keys

Offer 3

http://i58.tinypic.com/k9ulb9.jpg - offered terror-watt brown bomber (60-72) = 66 * 0.9 = 59 keys - support proof

Mini for duped dbd sola topi:

Sold for aussie tomislav (9) = 8 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153449337?time=1424851200 (February 25th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153449337?time=1424937600 (February 26th)

Mini for strange pro frying pan:

Average buyer pays ~$35

Average seller receives ~$29.75

Scm key price ~$2.30

35/2.30 = 15 keys

29.75/2.30 = 13 keys

Range = 13-15 keys

Mini for c9 modest:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25543711 went unsold at 50 for almost a month.

http://backpack.tf/item/2646405739 i assume he ended up selling it on scm, it's in private bp now

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/553af547b88d882a6e8b45bb bunch of sales for c9 in the comments but they're all over the place so just using 50

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Sales at 30, 40, 46, 47 and 47-54

Offers rule out the sale at 30 as an outlier, and with offers above it I'm inclined to drop 40 also. Rounding to 45-55. Feedback very welcome.

(Sorry Frisky Dingo but this really does not appear to be worth what you think it is, buddy. Ty for the offer screens and gl selling.)