Suggestion: Miami Nights Crown of the Old Kingdom at 240–250 keys

Price Suggestion

~46 keys

miami

80 votes up

15 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Wed, 03 Jun 15 18:22:05 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

"Its just for decoration" - Akhmenrah

Oh joy, new cool things to price

The sales

Sale 1:

Seems to have sold for aces sole mate + DP rack

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124139319?time=1430550000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198124139319?time=1430729095 after

Histories dont match up - it seems like it was moved to a private backpack before going to the next owner, as it only appears in the next owner's backpack several days later.

However, this trade seems to have been a scam (see explanation sale 2)

Sale 2:

Sold for a HOUWAR (~140) + 8 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1431414000 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1431586800 after

As mentioned in sale 1: this seems to have been bought off of a scammer:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/76561198057452720: Two-week ban for trading with scammer alts/marked scammers. The item mentioned in the warning is this crown.

Sale 3:

Cant exactly trace this sale; seems to have indirectly sold for a gifted logo pullover:

Buyer:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000958600?time=1431586800 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000958600?time=1431749400 after

Seller:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1431704077 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198057452720?time=1431759600 after

Histories dont match, but the pullover seems to have been bought for a flies anger + KaW combustible + 23 keys (~160 after overpay) (or anything that was exchanged for these)

Gonna exclude this.

Sale 4:

offered on and sold for amaranthine spook specs (~240)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25964616 Trade post

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25923477 offered

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000958600?time=1431749400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198000958600?time=1431846000 after

-> 240 keys

Sale 5:

Sold for bubbling pullover (~110), duped bubbling veil (~43) and duped RA titanium tower (~126)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25979835

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059974649?time=1432092562 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198059974649?time=1432105200 after

0.9*(110+126+43) = ~250

-> 250 keys

Sale 6:

Sold for beams bonk helm + blizzardy crones

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25924162

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088528579?time=1431754225 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198088528579?time=1431759600 after

This is gonna be a clear outlier, excluding.

The minis:

Mini veil

Given the total value of the sale, I doubt the fact that this is duped will have any crucial influence on the sale's value. Differences in values will probably be ~5-10k tops, which will be neglectable (especially after overpay and rounding)

Going with its recently updated value.

Mini pullover:

Sold + bubbling ushanka for DaD coldsnap (~180)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25819339

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045366924?time=1430204400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045366924?time=1430332144 after

Ushanka had a B/O of 75, Pullover had a B/O of 115.

180-75 =~105. The value of the pullover would haev been ~105-115, averaging this to 110

Taking 110

Mini tower:

Sold for scorching milkman (~126)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25636026

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053645545?time=1428594466 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053645545?time=1428649200 after

Taking 126

Conclusion:

Sales at 240 and 250. Unclear sale around ~150 (seller bought it from a scammer and QSed it) and a sale that would barely exceed 130 after overpay. Other sales involve scammers.

Putting this at 240-250

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3

Seems fair.

Question on the mini on the tower though, idk how dota 2 items are calculated, but the tower was traded for a dota2 gem worth 200 euros or something?

I saw that offer passing by I believe. I know little to nothing about Dota/CSGO items, so unless I have to, I try to refrain from using them in minis. I did not check its value, but If it would be ~200€, it would be below 100 keys; quite sure that'd be too low for a hat like that.

Thanks for the feedback though :P

Yeah i understand, but i believe it is important.

The other owner of the crown said people were quickselling the gem for around ~200€, when they were actually looking for ~350€.

The new owner of the gem has a B/O of 125 keys though.

Everything's confusing lol

Thats quite a severe difference oO. Thats exactly why I dont use this kind of items (as I dont have any experience with them and would have to go on opinions, although I could ask a friend to look into it) However, that B/O would be supportive towards the value of the mini I made on the tower itself. I guess this should be accurate enough.

Also for my sale, it wasn't the bonk. It was a terrorwatt your worst nightmare (~54) + killawatt beret (~25) + terrorwatt sole mate (~30) + small sweets. 109 x .9 = 98 (might need minis).

For the crone's I had a c/o of ~120, even though it got repriced at 96. Negotiated with Skully (owner of the crown) and told him the buyer for ~120 (doesn't apply so I'd take 96?).

And yep, if we could get someone to look into it, that'd be appreciated.

The original gem seller's BO was the 350€ mark. He might have paid more for all i know.

edit: just confirmed he paid in the "190" ish key range for the tower. He gave the gem and a SF arcana?

+1 for tower i paid the Self-Made Gem + a SF arcana. In my Dota2 <---> Tf2 should be ~190 keys.

I guess even if I take those, It'd still be a low outlier, but thanks for correcting.

I have no clue what a 'SF arcana' is, but if I get an item name Ill check out SCM sales. if they were to be 195 together, that'd likely be an outlier, but Ill check out more sales on the tower.

No problem, sorry for making your life difficult lol.

I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible. I have no idea what a SF Arcana is either.

Edit: Looks like the Gem has a quickseller for < ~$300, but other sellers want $400. The SF Arcana looks to be about $30-40.

Demon Eater, its the name of the item. Its a Arcana, its a Dota 2 "pure" item.

The new owner of the gem wants 120 keys for it. I cant find any recent SCM sales (no later than august last year). There's one for sale for ~200€, but Id rather take the 120 keys on it (200€ = <100 keys).

The inscribed demon-eater has a bunch of sales around 30-32€ => ~14 keys

Total value 120+14 keys => ~134 keys

I believe this is close enough to the mini provided. (Averaging them out would result in ~130, which is a neglectable difference, especially regarding Marty's comment below).

As said, I have nothing else to go by as I dont have experience doing Dota trading, but I cant value it that high based on community market sellers (since no recent sales have occurred on it) and will have to cap it at the B/O the new owner has set (Since apparently, that's the amount of pure he had in mind when accepting it).

Digging into other sales on the RA tower:

Digging into the duped one brought me nowhere. Sales involved scammers and people that cashed out:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25883143 sold for knifes I guess? (and has the weirdest BO ever)

Only clean one with a recent enough sale to use QSed it below 100

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25209670 sold for 3 buds/max/aussie knife = ~80 (at the time, generously pricing)

Dang, I wish we had a knowledgeable Dota2 trader here, I bet there are some sales for the gems w/o using SCM?

And it looks like for the recent clean sale, it was a QS, which idk if we can use that to accurately price the tower (since this one was duped and not a QS)?

(Even the guy Timmy said he should price it at 17-18 buds back then, which were like 10-11 keys each at the time?).

I don't have premium so i can't see what he sold it for :/

I cant use the clean sale since it was a QS. I checked the histories to find the buds/max/knife (which is way too low, seeing what the duped one sold for). Accurately pricing the tower itself is completely impossible at the moment.

The closest indication to the value of the duped one is the sale for the scorching milkman in my eyes. In terms of increasing the mini's value, there's literally no ground to stand on due to the B/O of the gem's new owner.

Yep I completely understand that.

Not sure if he is, but he appears to be quickselling the gem without explicitly saying it? His b/o is 120 keys, but he is looking for 250+ keys in unusuals, if that has any avail.

I just don't want to downplay what Uridimmu paid for his hat, because when he made that same offer to me, I was a little sketched out by Dota 2 items. Maybe he needed TF2 items ASAP to get the trade completed?

He also tossed in the SF arcana, but that's almost neglectible now I suppose.

Actually I paid a Flies Anger + Kaw Combustable + 31 keys (~206 keys) I bought 8 keys to the ones I had already minutes before the trade. http://i.imgur.com/p7kEuiy.png

Can show full keys if needed.

ah okay. Probably still an outlier given the values I showed, since that would put the sale at ~170 after overpay (if all the hats are up to date)

Thanks for the feedback though!

Yea think so as well. Nice job!

The Bubbling Veil in Sale #5 is also duped. Doubt it matters in the grand scheme of things though. You can look into it if you feel so inclined.

I'm psyched to see this get priced either way.

yeah, I guess I should have mentioned that, Ill edit it in.

However, I believe given the total value of the sale, it being duped wont be of crucial impact on the sale's value. I can quickly run a mini on it, but I guess it would be a 5-10k difference tops (which can be neglected by rounding). Thanks for noticing though :P

Agreed. I wouldn't bother with it at all unless something more significant turns up that influences how that sale is valued.

got offered it on my death at dusk bonk ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25954948#latest )(208) and it was a pretty easy rejection, this plus all the outliers you have makes me think this range is too high (I also saw it offered on other hats in the 210 key range)

The guy that offered it on your hat eventually sold it for the spook specs, which have recently been updated (along with the hats involved in its suggestion).

The reason Im not using the low outliers is:

- Sale 1 was probably a scam (as the next visible owner got banned off OP regarding his purchase of this hat for buying it off of a scammer)

- Sale 2 was abovementioned guy QSing it, trying to get rid of the hat

- Sale 3 was a QS

Sale 6 turned out to be different than I initially thought, but if Id do minis on the hats involved, it'd probably end up around sale 2's value. Usually Id have waited for more sales with the values I got, but since the first 3 sales I found are all rather fishy and it has proven to pull off way higher in a reasonably short time twice afterwards, Im still convinced the range is okay. Ill see what the mods think, unless new sales occur.

Thanks for pointing that out, though!