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Sale 1
Sold for sunbeams connoisseur's cap and 20 keys = (68 * 0.9) + 20 = 81 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127915163?time=1431500400 (May 13th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198127915163?time=1431586800 (May 14th)
Recent sales are messy/complex
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25592061 68 key BO
Sale 2
Sold/offered with 5 keys for aces high antlers (80-85) = 82.5 - 5 = 78 keys
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118569123?time=1431154800 (May 9th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118569123?time=1431241200 (May 10th)
Sale 3
Sold with 1.5 keys and ~2.5 key sweets for duped HOUWAR (~125) = 125 - 4 = 121 keys - outlier
Seller before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034626569?time=1428649200 (April 10th)
Seller after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198034626569?time=1428822000 (April 12th)
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Feedback welcome
Any reason for calling 121 an outlier? That's the closest to pure sale we have
The last suggestion seemed to be closed because the two sales were too far apart and a third was needed to determine an outlier. The third sale was closer to the low-end, and the suggestion would have been basically the same as the previous closed one if I'd included all. I can resuggest if you think it should be left in, just assumed the last one was not accepted for a reason.
Eh. He closed it himself. And yeah, we were waiting on more sales. But 80-120 isn't really too big of a range. I can keep this up for some time to see if more sales happen. I was just curious about your rationale for excluding the 120 sale.
I know he closed it himself, but he did so after it being up a while so I figured that the reason it was left up was to wait for another sale, which there now is. I can do a wide range if you'd prefer.
There was also a sale on the SCM. May 23, 2015 at ~9pm for $287.50. Of course, it can't be used as evidence of value, but it's worth noting that the sale is more in line with the HOUWAR exchange than it is with the other sales.
I think it's safe to say that mine has settled into it's final owner's hands, it grew on me and I didn't put any real effort into my attempt to sell it. As far as I know, the other two sold for "pure". One for a HOUWAR and one for SCM cash (I noticed it on the market, I'm sure if you contact the owner, he'll tell you how much he paid).
Unless there's an unboxing, there's probabally not going to be any more sales. So, the recorded sales are going to be as good as it gets for a while.
Perhaps a wide range would be better if there are indeed two sales at the high end. I'll try and see if I can confirm the scm sale. Thanks for the heads up.