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This unusual has some messed up trades.
Sale #1
Sold for a Flies Berliner’s Bucket – 13*0.9 = 11.7 ~ 12
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153604875?time=1435734000 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198153604875?time=1435820400 - after
Literally could only find 1 valid sale without having either expired sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/23436365 - selling for 20 keys but it’s been up for 8 months and hasn’t been taken.
So best I can do is price this unusual at 12 keys.
Mini on Flies Bucket: 13 keys
Traded for duped Bubbling Outdoorsman + 2 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982275874?time=1434783600 - before
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197982275874?time=1434870000 - after
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26235962 - wanted 15 keys (but got a duped outdoors man with the earliest price it is going at is 11 keys.
Mini on Bubbling Outdoorsman: Best thing I could find is a seller at 11 keys, other one is duped and the other 2 unusuals have 3 months or older trades
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26009573 - 11 keys
If anything is funky or seems odd, please comment below, thanks
It looks like a flies tricorne recently sold for 19 keys
bp before selling http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991896434?time=1439535600
after http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991896434?time=1439622000
You might want to consider a range