Suggestion: Potassium Bonnet at 22–26 keys

Price Suggestion

Potassium Bonnet

Submitted Sat, 12 Sep 15 12:26:52 +0000 by ★ sparkii

61.86%

n/a

22–26 keys

~50 keys

1056 votes up

651 votes down

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Comments

Sellers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27012755 - 25 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26969357 - Offered 18

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27002849 - 28 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26964662 - 26 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27001551 - 26 Keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26971038 - 22 Keys

22-26 Seems like the most common point

Need solds not sellers for a new price.

My Gun Mettle Cosmetic Case suggestion was accepted with 0 sales.

Because they were sold after a few days. :P If you wanna play the waiting game everytime, fine i guess.

I'm down for that. No problem.

none of these have sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26964662 - 26 Keys (Was selling for 20, Sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27012755 - 25 Keys (Sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27001551 - 26 Keys (Is now selling for 24 and hasn't sold)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26971038 - 22 Keys (Unsold after a week)

Downvote

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27057496 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27057599 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27058129 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27057687 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27039134 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27057386 - 20

Waaay too many selling for less than your range

Please read the comments above.

wtf if the unique one will be so much so I dont even want to think about a unusual price for it :OO

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26911590

Already have a 500 keys mixed offer. :D And that is probably low.

And it's strange... Good lord that guy is lucky

God damn that's an unholy luck

There's someone with a strange vivid plasma one, they've declined offers of around 500 keys

mopcko posted the link to that 4 days before you mentioned it :|

Yes, a link. I was clarifying what it was exactly

22-26 is too high looking at SCM. Sales are around ~$45, which would put this at ~16-18 keys.

What? Keys are $2. 45/2= 22.5, which brings us to the low end of the range. The rest of the range is covered by the sales that happened $50 and beyond.

We are not talking about Paypal prices here. It's the price of keys on Steam market (now $2.44).

45/2.44= 18.4 keys (what buyer pays).

45/(2.44*1.15)= 16 keys (what seller receives)

Disliking my comment won't change facts, 22-26 is way too high.

Wow 12 dislikes for giving real proof. People just like/dislike without reading the message.

Meanwhile, the price on SCM has gone down by about 2 keys, and will keep decreasing as more of them get unboxed.

The SCM also heavily supports this price.

At least 50 of them have been sold in this price range.

It doesn't support it at all

32.20/2.49=12.9 keys

I honestly don't know how to feel about this

Why on earth are people willing to this much for a freakin regular banana hat

Because it's a very rare item.

Yes and no though.

Unboxing it is around 4-5 % in the cosmetic crate. There are other items with same chance of unbox.

It has a high value because its difference as a hat (almost like an Halloween item but that can be worn all year) and it is a new cosmetic item.

This is usually the same for all new cosmetic items, they are hyped and have high values at release. Give it a month and then the price will be more stable.

The thirst blood unusual hat had the same thing. Hyped as hell since the hat was limited from one special crate, but these days the market is flooded with the hat despite it having 1st gen effects as well.

out of 25 cases I got no elite grade hats (red ones, banana/pirate) and at that only got one assassin grade hat (the three pink ones, second rarest unboxes) - chances of getting one of the banana hats are extremely low, I'd say 2-3%, let alone the strange ones

though still, prices are bound to go lower as more get unboxed

It has an estimated rate of 4-5 % according to the official tf2 wiki.

Remember just because you have not unboxed one does not make it more rare. The odds for unboxing this hat is around 5 % everytime you unbox. Which means it does not matter if you unbox more crates, because the odds of getting one is the same regardless if you unbox 1000 or 1 crate.

official tf2 wiki isn't accurate on unboxing rates

Then I am interested what you base that on?

They do say it is estimates I know. But do you have a source with better numbers?

Hover over an item and click on stats. Look at "Found in crate". Compare the amount unboxed between different items in the crate. For example: 265 banana hats vs 5760 Flak Jacks. Obviously, the wiki is way off with it's estimate: banana hat 4%, flack jack 7.14%.

Actually yes and no.

Statistics means that when you get a high enough number, the ratio will even out to the percentage numbers.

But this will only be seen where you get high enough numbers of example unboxs. Now you would need to do the math on how many crates you would need to unbox to be able to be sure on the percentages for the different items. That math I don't remember anymore.

Like throwing a dice.

Throw the dice 20 times and you might see alot of 5s and 4s but few 3s. Now if the you do the math for the odds of getting a 3 based on 20 throws, that percentage number will be different from the 1/6 it is. Throw it 1 000 000 times and you will see it is more evenly spread and closer to 1/6.

Again odds are just how likely it is something will happen, not an exact forecast for how many of each thing you will get.

And yes, the numbers might be off as you claim based on those figures. But does not seem to be anybody else that tried to make any calculations for the chance of getting the different items from the crate. So then I rather go with an rough estimate even if it is wrong with 5-10 %. But that is personal opinion.

Well, that means an estimated 95% of not getting one.

By unboxing 1000 crates, that is accumulatively a 0.00000000000000000000005291% chance of not getting one from those 1000 crates.

Of your sellers:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073517883?time=1442058250

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073517883?time=1441695600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27012755 - sold for SFB Raincatcher (outdated at 29, supports your highend though)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26969357 - relisted over here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27020886

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27002849 - unsold

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202530132?time=1441954800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198202530132?time=1442041200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26964662 - sold for beams buckaroos (seller was looking for 20 though)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27001551 - lowered to 24

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26971038 - raised to 26, looks like they'll take 19 though

This might end up dropping a little after more become tradable. Some other notable trades to keep an eye on:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27024605 - 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27014260 - 22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27001551 - 24

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27023879 - 25

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27020778 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27014895 - offer of ~20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27024605 - not sure what it sold for but B/O was 20 and VERY quick

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27014260 - unsure here too, B/O was 22 and it sold quick as well

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27014895 - ????

I hate this hat and its untrackable sales

Of the original sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27020886 - seems to have disappeared onto SCM?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27002849 - same as above

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27001551 - still unsold @ 24

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26971038 - lowered to 22

Some other sales:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123360022?time=1442214000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123360022?time=1442300400 - sold for 16 keys

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064039925?time=1441954800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064039925?time=1442127600 - sold for 15.6 keys?

More sellers:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27036761 - 18 (young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27036351 - 20 (keep an eye on the strange one too)

This is definitely too high now.

well, time to wait for this to drop to 4 ref :^)

You still need sales to price an unpriced item. Downvote.

Lol it will never drop to 4 ref, any hat that starts out at 20+ keys will eventually become stable at a few keys, maybe its gonna be like the new BMOC or Bill's after hype is over.

"hi im selling this burning flames buckaroos hat, 2 bananas or overpay"

18-20 keys seems like the best price range as of right now

Why do you people want to make this item expensive?Because it's stupid?Yeah, I would sell it for a big price too.

We do not decide, the market does.

welcome to economy

Why do you people have to hate me just because I made this comment?It was a joke anyway.Haters gonna hate.

Your comment is spam and and has absolutely no contribution whatsoever.

I didn't ask for your opinion.Let's not make a big deal from a comment.

And we didn't ask for yours.

Checkmate.

Opinion=/=fact :^)

Oh, I don't know how to respond .

I know actually.

So, you commented now just because you wanted to be a "badass"?

Look, I don't want to annoy someone or to spam or something else.I just said something.I said let's not make it be a big deal, and you continue.

Now people will dislike this comment because " they can".

People dislike it because you're provoking others.

I don't even know how to respond to this

Get out.

This is gonna be like Max' Reserved hat or the Horace xD

max's reserved hat?

To be honest that is a really high price even though it is an uncommon hat at the moment but eventually more and more will be unboxed that's just a regular it's not strange or unusual A better price might be something like 15 keys for now

something tells me you don't know how economy works

you can't just say "oh I feel like this should be valued at that" and boom, its valued at that. imagine how fucked any economy would be if it was like that. if sales, sellers, and buyers support the given evidence, then that's the price, not priced out of your opinions

and you have a 1,000 ref backpack value :^) c'mon

Yes I know but it's just a regular hat there is nothing special about it other than its a banana and atm an uncommon cosmetic. I just feel that it's over priced

Rare*

so a diamond ring should be the same price as a toy plastic ring because it doesn't give me super jump?

we value things at prices of what the people are buying for. welcome to the absolute fundamentals of ~~TF2~~ economy

>To be honest that is a really high price even though it is an uncommon hat at the moment but eventually more and more will be unboxed

That's basically what people said about the strange awp, and that's still 9 keys.

High demand + low supply = high prices. Welcome to Economics 101.

LOLno

wat te fakc

There are various places around the internet where you are free to shitpost and spam to your heart's desire.

This is not one of them.

I'm going to buy one and paint it brown

Why would you pay that much in keys for a hat you could get at a lower price on the market? Downvote for me.

*cough* Unusual Strange version will be the new Burning Flames Team Captain *cough*

one of them will be the cursed banana hat equal to the cursed burning flames tc

No.

This is just incase you decide to edit it. For the mods to see, that is. http://imgur.com/DdttkGE

I find that Hat really ugly. but yeah upvote

the dislike spammers are back

god help us

There's several kinds of people here:

The n00bs who want all the items they can get so they vote up

The people who hate the hat and downvote it so it never has a price

People who like the hat ant want to sell/buy the hat so they upvote

The people who are actually considerate and vote on how much evidence there is and actually make a decision

And before you say anything, I downvoted.

There's no solds.

They have sold.

Mostly.

I know they have been sold, I mean this guy hasn't listed any sold ones

keep the irrelevant spam to yourself

something tells me you don't know a thing about economy

How is this still open + army of comment dislikers

As a Banana lover I will up vote. Through out my life I have always worn a banana suit. You can even see me in the Harlem shake during the airplane ride. I also wore Banana Suits during Halloween, Christmas, Easter, and other events. (yes even funerals)

keep your pointless comment away, please

selling=/=sold

Needs solds/offerers, not sellers. Dont worry, i made this mistake as well before

He's waiting until they can sell.

One of the moderators said that was fine, I believe.

i dread the day when what you here in trade servers is:

"Selling my Clean, All Class Unusual for 3 Bananas pure!"

I cant wait for that actually