"Is this the real life, or is this just some hat in some game?"

HATS ARE REAL TOO

~~~ Requested by clarity ~~~

The sales

Sale 1:

Sold for 30:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26033482 took 3 months

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008630217?time=1439732118 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198008630217?time=1439967600 after

->30 keys

Sale 2:

[No OP trade]

Sold for spec ks aussie blutsauger (+ 9 keys?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123934498?time=1440903201 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123934498?time=1440918000 after

May have involved keys, but cant see if they were, since they dont show a next owner in their histories and dont show up in the buyers BP. He may have unboxed:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093858877?time=1440862442 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093858877?time=1440918000 after

Not gonna use this.

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Sale 3:

[No OP trade]

Sold +1key for logo samur eye (~28)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123934498?time=1440641095 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198123934498?time=1440658800 after

Samurs price is just in-date; it recently sold for a max reasonably fast, so it should still be close enough

Assuming offered as a key was added. Neither have OP trades.

28-1 = 27

-> 27 keys

Sale 4:

Bulk deal scorching milkman:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130362772?time=1440572400 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130362772?time=1440658800 after

nope.

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Sale 5:

Dunno

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971208687?time=1440283290

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197971208687?time=1442300400

Gl figuring that out, no OP trades

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Sale 6:

Sold for flies lucky shot + ~4keys of sweets

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/25405001 took ages, wanted 20 (see comments)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053503673?time=1436391733 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053503673?time=1436425200 after

Flies shot's price is ancient, plus a clear BO was never listed. Seeing how the sale is over 2months old, Im gonna rule it out due to a recent far higher pure sale.

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Sale 7:

Sold for G.fetti private eye (~19) + 5 keys pure + ~1.5 keys in ref (23 to be exact) + 1.5 keys in sweets

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061113506?time=1442046591 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061113506?time=1442127600 after

Mini private eye:

Sold for planets phantom (~23)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988336650?time=1442015325 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988336650?time=1442015325 after

Has sellers at 19 at classifieds. Gonna take 19

0.9*20.5 + 6.5 = ~25

-> 25 keys

Sale 8:

Sold for ghosts noir (~22)

http://m.imgur.com/K9MaHtZ

http://m.imgur.com/nVy1qWM

0.9*22= ~20

-> 20 keys

Sale 9:

Sold for duped vivid industrial festiviser

http://m.imgur.com/kPdYyzg

http://m.imgur.com/QT3lw32

Was used in another suggestion; excluding here

=========================================================================================================

Sale 10:

Sold for 25 pure:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26737563 shows the offer; sold in a few days

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031569942?time=1439328053 before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031569942?time=1439449200 after

-> 25 keys

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Gonna make the range 25-30, supported by 2 pure sales. Including the 25 despite it happening fairly quick as 2-3 other lower sales have occurred, supporting it as part of the range.

Constructive criticism welcome!

~Foamy :3