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~41 keys
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Unusual Winter Woodsman Circling Heart
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2 sales, both through me. Owned by a collector - this guy probably wouldn't even sell it for a burning TC.


Sale #1


http://prntscr.com/8pvhmq

Seller's backpack -

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096135174?time=1441263600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198096135174?time=1441522800


Sold for (listing pivotal items only):

Sunbeams Glengarry (62), Holy Grail Obloot (50*), Pro K/S Aussie Grenade (30*), Spec K/S Aussie Eyelander (32),

Genuine All-stars (2), Strange Juggernaut (3).


(62 + 50 + 30 + 32 + 2 + 3) x 0.9 = 161 keys - OUTLIER. I discussed the unboxer's dream offer at length with him, and we came to an agreement. He accepted that I was overpaying significantly on most of the constituent parts of the trade, and took into account that my offer would amount to less than some others because of that reason. If you're about to throw around sharking accusations, Please feel free to add the unboxer to verify this.


Sale #2


http://prntscr.com/8pw8ui - top of the trade. Couldn't zoom out far enough to show the whole trade o.O

http://prntscr.com/8pw9ig - Roughly the bottom half - don't count the keys here, there's an overlap.

Seller's backpack -

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058864891?time=1441695600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198058864891?time=1441782000 - Sold some of the aussies at this point.


Buyer's bacpack -

Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060237284?time=1441695600

After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060237284?time=1441782000


Sold for:

140 keys pure, Pro K/S Aussie RL (68*), Aussie Minigun (21), Pro K/S Amby (22*), Pro K/S Scattergun (43*)


140 + 68 + 21 + 22 + 43 = 294 (rounding to 295 for simplicity)


*Not making a mini for the Oblooterated taunt - Less than a week past the 3 month limit


*Pro K/S Aussie Grenade Mini

Seller for 30 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27199575 - 1 day old

Seller for 35 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27060236 - 3 weeks, clearly not selling as high as 35

Seller for 29 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27194793 - 2 days old

Seller for 30 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27120709 - 1 week old


Restocker buying for 27.3 keys - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26730399


35 appears high - 30 takes the average; I'll be using that.


*Pro K/S Aussie RL Mini

Recent Classifieds - http://prntscr.com/8pwfi9


Buyers/Sellers Meet happily at 68 keys - using that.


*Pro K/S Aussie Amby Mini

Recent Classifieds - http://prntscr.com/8pwi98


Happy medium between buyers/sellers seems to be 22 keys - using that.


*Pro K/S Aussie Scattergun Mini

Recent Classifieds - http://prntscr.com/8pwju7


Consistent buyers for 42 and consistent sellers for 44/45. In keeping with what I've done before, I'll take the median of approx. 43 keys and use that.


*Not making a mini for spec K/S aussies. The price differences from non K/S aussies are negligible in a trade of this size.


In keeping with all my previous suggestions, this is probably riddled with errors. Constructed criticism is always welcome.

    I guess the limited time it took you to resell it for pure + pure equivalents after buying it in the 161 sale is the clearest indication that sale 2 is a better representation than sale 1.


    If it wont be resold, this should be fine

    [Edit]

    Also, paying ~160 for a hat this tier can barely be called a shark IMO ;p Not everyone that manages to get a good deal is a shark

      hahaha thanks, I was a bit worried about accusations when I made this. Helps to hear that from an external source.

    Why would the first sale be considered an outlier but the 2nd sale is legit, Couldn't the 2nd sale be an outlier? Just wondering.

      Two main reasons. The first being as I stated - we agreed on buying him his dream set, and he accepted that the end trade would amount to less than his asking price because I over-payed so heavily for some of the items - a clean Bonnet was very hard to find, and there were no holy grail Obloots on the market.


      The second reason being that the amount payed by the collector is reflective of the value they see in the hat for themselves - the unboxer wasn't immensely interested in profit, and the value he held for it was somewhat nebulous. It'd be unfair on the collector to devalue his hat like that.