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Sale 1 :
Before : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060212574?time=1439967600
After : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060212574?time=1440054000
Sold for a Steaming Polar Pullover ( 110 ) but a Sunbeams Dread Knot ( 25 ) was added : 110 - 25 = 85 keys
Mini on the pullover :
Before : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067056647?time=1439449200
After : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067056647?time=1439622000
Sold for Circling Peace Sign Brown Bomber ( 115 ) + 7 keys in items and pure : 122 * 0.9 = 110 keys
Sale 2 :
Before : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068651268?time=1439103600
After : http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068651268?time=1439190000
Sold for a Circling TF Logo Coldsnap Cap ( 111 ) not outdated by much, only 1 in the world and no recent sales so taking its current price of 111 keys : 111 * 0.9 = 100 keys
Sale 3 : Sold for 75 keys in buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27013247
Sale 4 : Sold for 70 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27143975
Only recent usable sales.
Taking the range of 85-100 keys.
Supportive criticism welcome
PS : thx to the one for the sales :)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198068654774?time=1439103600 - 47 keys added with the Viewfinder in Sale #2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26709507 - Also, the Pullover in your mini had a 95 key B/O, so the mini shouldn't be higher than 95
Would you consider sale 2 as an outlier then or is it still usable ?
The keys are not from the same sale they are from a market place bot.
The ID #s from when Fesh acquires the keys + Viewfinder range from 4021170414 to 4021170819. The minimal amount of difference makes it clear that they came from the same trade. Names do not always update, but if the numbers match this well there is no doubt.
Alright, would you consider the sale as an outlier then as its quite far from the actual price ?
Your sales should be closer together across the board since sales #1 and #2 are both lower than previously believed. You can argue against applying overpay on either of the first 2 because of the adds on the Viewfinder's side, indicating it was most likely offered each time (though I could find nothing conclusive in either case). That would leave you with sales at 70, 65, 75, and 70 though. Pretty consistent.