Suggestion: Frostbite Hong Kong Cone at 190–200 keys

Bomber isn't technically outdated at 217 keys (it's over 2 months old). Given the value of the Sand Cannon and sweets, this sale will fall inside the range i'm going to suggest later.

So i won't use this sale and will leave it open for a future update on the Bomber.

=======> Not using

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4) Sold with a Bubbling Pencil Pusher (?) for a TF Logo Antlers (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446188400 (October 30th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446274800 (October 31st)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446188400&compare=1446274800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27303316 ---- B/O on the Cone was 200 keys

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Mini on the Pencil Quicksold for 16 keys pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441263600 (September 3rd)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441436400 (September 5th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441263600&compare=1441436400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26959743 --- B/O was 18 keys

A lot of sellers for 20 keys on Outpost: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/257073208

Taking the mid range: 18 keys

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Couldn't find a mini on the Antlers, so this sale should be used to update it.

=======> Not using

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5) Sold for 121 keys + 10 B.M.O.C. (4 keys each) + Pro. Ks. Wrench (~30 keys)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

No Outpost trade.

Some keys + Wrench + 5 B.M.O.C. don't appear in buyer's backpack, but had to be involved according to Near-ID on seller's backpack.

=======> 121 + (10*4+30)*0.95 = 187.5 = ~190 keys

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6) Sold for a Sunbeams Backwards Ballcap (?) + Mega Strike Battin' a Thousand (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26903254 --- Cone

Couldn't find a decent mini on the Ballcap (one of its sales is being used to price the Anti-Freeze Tough Stuff Muffs), so this sale should be used to update it.

=======> Not using

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7) Sold for a Morning Glory Cotton Head (?) + gifted Circling Heart Pyromancer's Mask (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442559600 (September 18th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442732400 (September 20th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442559600&compare=1442732400

The Cotton Head is unpriced, so it would be too complex to use.

=======> Not using

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8) Sold for a Miami Nights Hong Kong Cone (87.5 keys) + Strange Cloud 9 Law (?) + ~5 keys in sweets.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444201200 (October 7th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444460400 (October 10th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444201200&compare=1444460400

No Outpost trade.

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Mini on the Law: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/562a77d1b98d88ec72e94aed

Taking 130 keys

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=======> (87.5 + 130)*0.9 + 5 = 200.75 = ~200 keys

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Sellers

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26909444 --- 230 keys for 2 months

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27317802 --- 200 keys for 5 days, got offered 190 four days ago, but no deal yet.

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27220088 --- 180 keys for 2 weeks.

Summary

- Sales at 190 and 200, with one supportive sale for a Stormy 13th Bomber which should fall between these numbers.

- Other sales include a TF Logo Antlers and Sunbeams Ballcap, which should be very close to other sales, but couldn't be used due to a lack of minis.

- Sellers at 180, 190 and 230.

Taking 190-200 keys range.

Criticism appreciated!

yassss king, yassss

Well, sorry for lowering the value of your backpack :( At least it will be up-to-date now.

And now i'm following the chain. P.E. Cone, here i come.

https://gyazo.com/c1f49296c63f477e172dde6200474f8d

my bp before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446361200

my bp after: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663

Counter sale. Sold mine 1:1 for a clean Haunted Ghosts Brown Bomber (updated at 252.5) he offered me. 252.5*9=227.25

Oh why did you do that... Cone>>>Bomber.

Anyways, Bomber is about to go outdated, so i will try to find a mini on it.

I know, I know. The profit margin though.

Well, the guy who sold the Bomber to you paid a Circling Heart TC (open suggestion for 212.5)+ ~28 keys + Pool Party (4 keys) http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56115feab98d887009cc1ad7

This sale would put the Cone at ~245 keys (The TC suggestion has pure sales at 190 and 230). Feels high taking in account sellers for lower and the fact that i have 3 sales in the 190-200 range.

Anyways, i will leave this up and wait for more feedback from mods.

PS: Seems like a good deal actually, looking at other sales on the Bomber :)

Snow Cone!

Great job on the suggestion. You put a lot of work into it! Upvote!

Sale 2 I think was a repayment of a loan. I won't go into specifics since it was a while back but it involves this PE Rotation. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26941748

Thanks for clarifying. If the sale was the same as the offer (Cone + Max + 13 keys), then i don't think i can use it given how unstable is the market for Rotations. I made a mini today for the P.E. Rotation and it's around 175 keys.

But if it was a loan, then can't use it either way i guess.

The rotation sold for the Cone offer but the new owner wanted to trade back within an hour or two so just the hats were swapped, max's and keys were not. Rotation ended up selling 1:1 for aMG Brainiac. It's a little convoluted, just leave it as the mess it is.

The Cloud 9 Law suggestion was closed because the high-end sale should have been 90 keys instead of 135. Taking that in account (90-126 range on the Law), the sale for the Frostbite Cone would end up at ~180 keys.

The suggested range shouldn't change too much anyways, maybe 180-200 or 180-190. The Stormy 13th Bomber sale could be used as a high-end now, but

i will check everything more closely tomorrow.

Another sale happened: Sold for a Misty Skull Blighted Beak (167.5 keys - Cone was offered)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447056000 (November 9th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447142400 (November 10th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447056000&compare=1447142400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27359605 ---- Beak trade where the Cone was offered.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27361455 ---- B/O on the Cone trade was 280 keys

So in summary we have sales for: 167.5 , ~180 (corrected sale involving the Cloud 9 Law), 190, 195 (Stormy 13th Bomber) and 245 (sale for the HG Bomber).

245 seems like an outlier given B/Os of 200 keys for the Cone. I will resuggest to 170-195.