Lost my eye I had on this, but something reminded me

Other sales:

Bubbling counterfeit?

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082043207?time=1445065200&compare=1445929200

Histories dont match. Would be ~10 but thats prolly low

orb.fire pencil pusher

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049800876?time=1448092800&compare=1448179200

would need mini. at current price its ~23

I dunno, 10 keys match in itemID with each other, but cant link them to the buyer

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197970367375?time=1446624000&compare=1447488000

Also because theres nothing there:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046228848?time=1446883200&compare=1446796800

Sold + FN thunderbolt (~16) for pro aussie nade launcher (~29)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198130415738?time=1448006400&compare=mostrecent

Not really usable but would support the value

gifted steaming MYB

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198060417117?time=1445929200&compare=1448352000

Would require mini, clean myb is ~17. I think its fair to say thisll be close to the range after overpay. Not much usable on the yellow belt. Last trackable sale is + peace bot dogger for c9 noble + ~3 ish keys in sweest

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044519477?time=1443337200&compare=1443510000

Leak doctors sack? histories mismatch (really weird one)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198137030335?time=1446710400&compare=mostrecent

buyer shows nothing:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117478897?time=1447401600&compare=1447142400

Probably no sale, warehouse acc I guess

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049566349?time=1447747200&compare=1448092800

this is probably stored in the abovementioned warehouse

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198031482563?time=1446796800&compare=1447401600

Nothing again

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081254481?time=1446624000&compare=1446969600

And again

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050918887?time=1445151600&compare=1448092800

This is getting stale

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020317563?time=1446796800&compare=1447574400

this is VERY not usable

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198020317563?time=1446796800&compare=1446188400

18 keys here

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198104975933?time=1446710400&compare=1446883200

Given the abundance of lower sales Id say a range is in order here, but 18 pure is quite solid. The pusher sale supports a higher range, but by itself is probably high given current buyouts. Worth resuggesting for, Im going 13-18

I guess its mainly the hat thats low-tier; it seems to be extremely common. Especially low-ish since theres two similar other effects with a different color.

Guess tier wise this effect should be slightly above the codexes