Resuggesting to take in account recent sales. Sorry people who upvoted last time :(

Stay frosty, people.

Sales

1) Sold with 200 keys for a Purple Energy Cone (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1444892400 (October 15th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1444978800 (October 16th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1444892400&compare=1444978800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27242248 --- Frostbite Cone was most likely offered.

Being used to update the P.E. Cone.

=======> Not using

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2) Sold for.... a Spec. Ks. Max's Head (?) + 13 keys

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1444978800 (October 16th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1445065200 (October 17th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198091968935?time=1444978800&compare=1445065200

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1444978800 (October 16th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1445065200 (October 17th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1444978800&compare=1445065200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27249322 ---- Cone

This was part a repayment of a loan, so i won't use it.

=======> Not using

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3) Sold with a Spec. Ks. F.N. Sand Cannon (?) + ~5 keys in sweets for a Stormy 13th Hour Brown Bomber (217 keys)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1445670000 (October 24th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1445756400 (October 25th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198063919822?time=1445670000&compare=1445756400

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014501079?time=1445670000 (October 24th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014501079?time=1445756400 (October 25th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198014501079?time=1445670000&compare=1445756400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27220644 --- Cone was offered

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Mini on the Sand Cannon: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27303316 No idea what it sold for, but had a B/O of 15 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27340960 --- Seller at 19 keys

Taking the mid range: 17 keys

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=======> 217 - 17 - 5 = 195 keys

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4) Sold with a Bubbling Pencil Pusher (?) for a TF Logo Antlers (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446188400 (October 30th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446274800 (October 31st)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446188400&compare=1446274800

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27303316 ---- B/O on the Cone was 200 keys

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Mini on the Pencil Quicksold for 16 keys pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441263600 (September 3rd)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441436400 (September 5th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038433215?time=1441263600&compare=1441436400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26959743 --- B/O was 18 keys

A lot of sellers for 20 keys on Outpost: http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/257073208

Taking the mid range: 18 keys

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This sale should be used to update the Antlers.

=======> Not using

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5) Sold for 121 keys + 10 B.M.O.C. (4 keys each) + Pro. Ks. Wrench (~30 keys)

Seller: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197961080670?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

Buyer: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198094044720?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

No Outpost trade.

Some keys + Wrench + 5 B.M.O.C. don't appear in buyer's backpack, but had to be involved according to Near-ID on seller's backpack.

=======> 121 + (10*4+30)*0.95 = 187.5 = ~190 keys

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6) Sold for a Sunbeams Backwards Ballcap (?) + Mega Strike Battin' a Thousand (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440745200 (August 28th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440831600 (August 29th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049324358?time=1440745200&compare=1440831600

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26903254 --- Cone

Couldn't find a decent mini on the Ballcap (one of its sales is being used to price the Anti-Freeze Tough Stuff Muffs), so this sale should be used to update it.

=======> Not using

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7) Sold for a Morning Glory Cotton Head (?) + gifted Circling Heart Pyromancer's Mask (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442559600 (September 18th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442732400 (September 20th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198143415957?time=1442559600&compare=1442732400

The Cotton Head is unpriced, so it would be too complex to use.

=======> Not using

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8) Sold for a Miami Nights Hong Kong Cone (87.5 keys) + Strange Cloud 9 Law (?) + ~5 keys in sweets.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444201200 (October 7th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444460400 (October 10th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198118377590?time=1444201200&compare=1444460400

No Outpost trade.

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Mini on the Law: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/562a77d1b98d88ec72e94aed

The Cloud 9 Law suggestion was closed because the high-end sale should have been 90 keys instead of 135, so the range should be 90-126.

Taking 108 keys

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=======> (87.5 + 108)*0.9 + 5 = 181 = ~180 keys

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9) Sold for a Misty Skull Blighted Beak (167.5 keys)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447056000 (November 9th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447142400 (November 10th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050518375?time=1447056000&compare=1447142400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27359605 ---- Beak trade where the Cone was offered.

=======> ~170 keys

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10) Sold for a Haunted Ghosts Brown Bomber (?)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446361200 (November 1st)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446451200 (November 2nd)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198152878663?time=1446361200&compare=1446451200

https://gyazo.com/c1f49296c63f477e172dde6200474f8d ---- Credits to Korny

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Mini on the Bomber: Sold for a Circling Heart TC (212.5 keys)+ ~28.5 keys in Paypal + Pool Party (4 keys)

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/56115feab98d887009cc1ad7 ----- Check naknak's comment here

=======> 212.5 + 28.5 + 4 = ~245 keys

The TC suggestion had pure sales at 190 and 230, so i won't apply overpay.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27351936 --- B/O on the Cone was 230 keys, Bomber was offered.

Taking 230 keys

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=======> ~230 keys

________________________________________________________

Sellers

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/26909444 --- 230 keys for 2 months

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27317802 --- 200 keys for ~2 weeks

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27405561 --- 200 keys for less than a day.

- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/27220088 --- 180 keys for 4 weeks.

Summary

- Sales for 170, 180, 190, 195 and 230.

- Sellers for 180, 200 and 230.

- Sale for 230 is most likely an outlier given sellers for lower.

Taking 170-195 keys range.

Criticism appreciated!